Off shore forecasts - advice.

[tunajoe]

Thanks to those who gave their feedback about the NE winds out there today and into the next few days. This question is for the more experienced captains out there.... I often use NWS - Hudson to Baltimore canyon weather report. For today, they are forecasting winds of 5-10 becoming 10-20 later in the day. However, when I look at the Texas Tower forecast (and realtime) its showing winds of 23 with gusts to 27 and increasing throughout the day. What gives? Any insight?

[Jigman13]

Good rule of thumb is to know your body's limitations, your boat's limitations and your crew's limitations. Typically anything showing an increase throughout the day into the evening and next day should be at least a yellow flag and very likely a red flag once the forecast reaches 15 to 20+ mph. Add N/NE or NE and you're getting the crap kicked out of you and in unsafe conditions.

As the season progresses into September and the fall, windows become smaller, esp with the increase in tropical depressions this year and years prior. 3 to 5 day bluebird windows become the exception, not the norm. Err on the side of caution always as no boat is an island.

Seeing an increase to 10 to 20 and then looking at another source and seeing actuals of gusts up to 27 is an immediate no go. Use as many measurement resources as you possibly can when it comes to wind and wind direction. Play the averages and you should end up with a logical decision making ballpark.

A cautious captain is a captain who lives to fish another day.

[Gerry Zagorski]

Great advice above from Jigman. I’d like to add a few things to it.

Your best bet is to go when there is a long high pressure system forecasted. If you go while the weather is unsettled and up and dow every day you run the risk of the forecast changing while your out there as it often does.

As far as reading a marine forecast, the wave heights are important but so are the wave periods. EG a forecast of 5 Foot waves at 10 second period is more comfortable then 3 foot waves at a 5 second period because the wave are more spread out and easier to run and fish in.

Lastly the typical summer weather pattern here in NJ includes afternoon sea breeze which results from the days sun warming up the land. It usually kicks in around 3:00 and will blow hard out of the south or west so you should try and time your ride home before then since even with a perfect forecast, it can be bumpy.

[hookset]

With a name like tunajoe I’m sure you are no stranger to the offshore grounds.. they can be punishing and the fact you show enough doubt to ask for advice is reason enough to stay home. It is only early August. It has been a solid tuna season so far and with two more months coming no reason to risk anything.

[O'Man]

With the NWS offshore forecast and NE winds it's often a good idea to add the ranges together. So instead of believing 10 to 20, expect lots of it to be closer 30.

[rwp2101]

I'm still learning myself, this is all great info, so thank you!

More as an fyi for others reading (joe you seem past this), there's one feature on buoyweather that I've found very helpful this season. They have a description for the conditions each morning and afternoon in addition to the wind and waves forecasts. I've found the descriptor to be pretty good for the actual sea state, e.g. smooth seas, small chop, moderately choppy, rough seas, etc. Of course, the direction of travel plays a huge part as well, because it's just a general description. For someone learning they can look at the wind and wave forecasts for morning and afternoon out a few days and see how they combine to create the sea state.

[Andreas Toy]

Tuna Joe, be careful been running boats offshore from
16 feet to 44 feet and occasionally I get caught in bad shit.
Be safe and cautious and pick the best days

[Gumada]

Tropical Storm Kyle formed off the coast. It’s sitting off NJ now moving NE. Didn’t see any forecasts for this one....

[shrimpman steve]

The burmuda high is your friend