Fluke Stock Theory

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

H4R, I'm not makin the discard information up, the graph is from federal on board observers. Who should we believe, you or someone whose job includes among other things monitoring discards and compliance among commercial vessels? My money is on the on board observers.

NMFS would have to take these ridiculously high discard numbers into account in their landings. This says the man who has maintained all these years every number published by NMFS can't be correct but now this number had to be added to commercial landings why, because you say so. First it should be added to discard mortality, not landings, and second if you do the research it wasn't reported as you know what commercial landing have been running at commercially for years. I'm sure NMFS just posted the information to piss off the commercials and open themselves up to another lawsuit by that sector.

I agree, to them every fish is money. But at the same time every fish that brings the highest catch value back at the dock is more money. This coming from someone who not long ago posted that commercials target the largest fish because that's where the money is. Can't have it both ways my friend. I'm sure their nets aren't geared to catch only the largest and miss the massive amount of younger age classes that become collateral damage and tossed back overboard dead. NEFSC maintains an 80% mortality rate for commercial discards per tow. I'm sure it's higher and in the winter it's 100% as fish harvested are taken care of first and then the fish being discarded are shoveled overboard. How many fish coming up from 100 plus ft. depths in 30 degree temps do you actually think survive after being towed around and left on deck for a half hour?

It’s pretty evident there is a movement of the main biomass of this fishery. The movement that should have been filling in here was absolutely crushed by the commercial fleets from the Carolina’s .

Thank you, you're making my point. Commercials are killing the southern portion of the biomass in our waters and eventually they'll be forced to move north when they do the same thing to our local biomass they did to the Chesapeake biomass years ago. Then they'll have no choice but to move further north and target the last remaining biomass that's left. The northerly biomass isn't growing, the southerly portion is contracting, exactly what I've been saying. And I thought you said the biomass wasn't back filling here because of New Jersey's recreational slot limit, now you're saying it is in fact because of local commercial pressure which I agree with among other things. Got it, thanks for the clarification and getting it right.

Again yes there's more commercial presence this year than ever and they are catching their quotas which were reduced by 43%. You honestly believe they're keeping smaller less valuable fish after taking a 43% haircut in quota. It's economics 101 my friend, and you question the accuracy of my information and opinions. Not going to get into a debate, stated my theory and time will tell whether it's correct or not but as I said, this fishery can't be managed the way it is and survive.

Name one other fishery that kills all breeders, has a year round commercial presence, kills millions of younger age classes in the processes, pounds the stock not only during their spawn but year round, has insane amounts of waste involved and God only knows how much illicit netting is taking place and I'll be more prone to listen to your arguments. Just name one fishery which has survived those conditions? That shouldn't be a difficult request for someone of your talents and pulse on the fishery.

How longs it been since you actually caught a fluke , and filleted it ?
Even when we had the slot the last two years all the fluke had eggs in them .
There were no males out of hundreds of fish we caught .

Newer study’s believe males hardly come inshore . So should we make it a minimum of 15 miles before you’re allowed to fluke ?

I agree they allow commercials to fish at times when they are stacked up , and easier to catch including the spawn .
But you’re constantly stretching even your own imagination to double or triple what actually happens .

Fg monitors pretty well what goes on here with local boats , not so sure how well with out of state boats .

As far as them only catching their quotas because it was lowered , there are more boats fishing here daily than ever .
Reason is most guys that scalloped now aren’t because of those quota cuts .
Fluke is the only thing available , so they are doing that .

.
I also didn’t say fish weren’t filling in here because of the slot .
I said the absence of age class fish that would be 18” was hammered the last two years .
Plenty of fish above 19” and under 17”

Data charts are only as good as the info used to make them .
Your data is always skewed , and that’s why it never got the traction it should have recieved .

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

How longs it been since you actually caught a fluke , and filleted it ?
Even when we had the slot the last two years all the fluke had eggs in them .
There were no males out of hundreds of fish we caught .

Newer study’s believe males hardly come inshore . So should we make it a minimum of 15 miles before you’re allowed to fluke ?

I agree they allow commercials to fish at times when they are stacked up , and easier to catch including the spawn .
But you’re constantly stretching even your own imagination to double or triple what actually happens .

Fg monitors pretty well what goes on here with local boats , not so sure how well with out of state boats .

As far as them only catching their quotas because it was lowered , there are more boats fishing here daily than ever .
Reason is most guys that scalloped now aren’t because of those quota cuts .
Fluke is the only thing available , so they are doing that .

.
I also didn’t say fish weren’t filling in here because of the slot .
I said the absence of age class fish that would be 18” was hammered the last two years .
Plenty of fish above 19” and under 17”

Data charts are only as good as the info used to make them .
Your data is always skewed , and that’s why it never got the traction it should have received .

How long has it been since I've caught and filleted a fluke, July of this year.
What's your point?

I've always said most fish over 18" are females so not sure what your comment is responding to. You can revisit all my prior posts if you wish. Do males typically stage offshore more than females, maybe that's today's conventional wisdom after all these years but it's not what Rutgers study showed. When's the last time you filleted a fish under 18" to see if it was male or female? Couldn't be later than 2007 which was the last time the minimum size limit was less than 18" in New Jersey at 17". I do however know back then many fish that size and smaller when the regulations allowed the recreational sector to harvest those smaller sizes many more fish being harvested were males and yes that was from filleting many fluke.

An 18" male fluke is about 8-9 years old, how many male fluke do you think in todays world actually live that long between natural mortality and year round commercial onslaught? About five years ago, two male fluke were given honorable mention in trawl studies in a presentation Kiley Dancy gave in Delaware. Their sizes were 20" and 21"! Even if males have a tendency of staging more offshore which I'd question, harvesting 18" plus fish will continue killing off almost exclusively female breeders which will be the ultimate death of this fishery.

Stretching my imagination, really. Question, when party boats catch hundreds of shorts and return to the docks with 7 keepers, how many of those same fish do you think commercials would kill if they worked that same patch of fish. I know commercials can keep 14" and up but that's not the size they're after, they retain the largest fish to get the highest catch value. So if you think federal observer numbers are wrong and commercials are reporting accurate discard percentages on VTR's or their discard to landing ratio is anywhere near what's being reported, you can keep believing that delusion.

FG monitors landings, they have no idea what discards at sea are and they're too stretched out to control illegal harvest by commercials. It's a problem in every state and one boat can do tremendous damage to the stock. Codfather and more recently Montauk FV New Age, owner operator Christopher Winkler, to mention a few. Black market commercial netting is rampant.

Commercials only catching their quota because it was lowered, I'm not even sure what you're responding to since I never brought that up. I do agree that fluke are getting pounded more than ever because of cuts in other fisheries so we agree on that.

I used NMFS data against them to illustrate the flaws in their policies. My essential conclusions were increased size limits to recreational pushed more access of the overall fishery to commercial at the recreational sector's expense. That's a fact. I showed that increases in size minimums had a direct correlations every year since 2000 to reductions in the proportion of females to males in the stock based on their own studies. That's a fact and one anyone whose fished this stock will attest to. And as the female population got clobbered, recruitment followed suit. That would seem to be common sense, kill the breeders and recruitment will suffer dearly. Females grow larger and live longer, a fact that's been supported by many independent studies so when you increase minimums and incent selective harvest by the commercial sector to maximize catch values as quotas are being cut, you're asking for huge problems.

I'm not a construction worker and don't profess to be. You're not a technical or analytical guy so don't try to be. I've done more research on this fishery than you ever will with select data I believe is representative of the fishery, passed peer review, years on the water, sources I have in the industry and common sense. Do I believe MRIP is accurate, not at all. Do I believe 25% natural mortality is accurate, I have no idea. Do I believe recreational discard percentages are correct, I think anything involved with MRIP is questionable at best. But my analysis isn't made up of that data. The trends I've shown in the fishery coinciding with regulations, changes in the biomass, reductions in size and possession limits, reduction in recruitment etc. are reflective of what we're seeing in the fishery so if you wish to opine on something you know nothing about that's your prerogative. My work turned a lot of heads but never got the traction it deserved because it challenged the decisions being made managing this fishery which showed those decisions are actually hurting it more than helping it and being made for the benefit of economics and not fisheries management. Politics in other words. You think Mark Terceiro, Mike Luisi, Kiley Dancy, Chris Batsavage, Chris Moore, Brandon Muffley, or any of the other decision makers from NMFS, NEFSC, ASMFC or MAMFC will admit to their mistakes over the last two decades managing this fishery or any other? Too much money changing hands. Doesn't work that way, just as Michael Waine from ASA decided to play politics instead of addressing the issues we discussed with him years ago.

Instead we've gone from one of the most robust fisheries ever to continued declines in the biomass, quotas and regulations to the recreational sector over the last two decades coinciding with the continued use of increased size minimums as the preferred method to manage recreational catch. This year's massive quota cuts, an abysmal season to date and you want us to believe this happened because of what? Since you probably filleted more fish than me this year, almost all females I'm sure, I'll bow to your ultimate wisdom of the fishery as to why this is all happening and what needs to be done to correct it. I'll do that if you answer the one question I asked in my earlier post which is name one fishery being managed the same way this fishery is which is sustainable and growing. You can't because there aren't any.

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

How long has it been since I've caught and filleted a fluke, July of this year.
What's your point?

I've always said most fish over 18" are females so not sure what your comment is responding to. You can revisit all my prior posts if you wish. Do males typically stage offshore more than females, maybe that's today's conventional wisdom after all these years but it's not what Rutgers study showed. When's the last time you filleted a fish under 18" to see if it was male or female? Couldn't be later than 2007 which was the last time the minimum size limit was less than 18" in New Jersey at 17". I do however know back then many fish that size and smaller when the regulations allowed the recreational sector to harvest those smaller sizes many more fish being harvested were males and yes that was from filleting many fluke.

An 18" male fluke is about 8-9 years old, how many male fluke do you think in todays world actually live that long between natural mortality and year round commercial onslaught? About five years ago, two male fluke were given honorable mention in trawl studies in a presentation Kiley Dancy gave in Delaware. Their sizes were 20" and 21"! Even if males have a tendency of staging more offshore which I'd question, harvesting 18" plus fish will continue killing off almost exclusively female breeders which will be the ultimate death of this fishery.

Stretching my imagination, really. Question, when party boats catch hundreds of shorts and return to the docks with 7 keepers, how many of those same fish do you think commercials would kill if they worked that same patch of fish. I know commercials can keep 14" and up but that's not the size they're after, they retain the largest fish to get the highest catch value. So if you think federal observer numbers are wrong and commercials are reporting accurate discard percentages on VTR's or their discard to landing ratio is anywhere near what's being reported, you can keep believing that delusion.

FG monitors landings, they have no idea what discards at sea are and they're too stretched out to control illegal harvest by commercials. It's a problem in every state and one boat can do tremendous damage to the stock. Codfather and more recently Montauk FV New Age, owner operator Christopher Winkler, to mention a few. Black market commercial netting is rampant.

Commercials only catching their quota because it was lowered, I'm not even sure what you're responding to since I never brought that up. I do agree that fluke are getting pounded more than ever because of cuts in other fisheries so we agree on that.

I used NMFS data against them to illustrate the flaws in their policies. My essential conclusions were increased size limits to recreational pushed more access of the overall fishery to commercial at the recreational sector's expense. That's a fact. I showed that increases in size minimums had a direct correlations every year since 2000 to reductions in the proportion of females to males in the stock based on their own studies. That's a fact and one anyone whose fished this stock will attest to. And as the female population got clobbered, recruitment followed suit. That would seem to be common sense, kill the breeders and recruitment will suffer dearly. Females grow larger and live longer, a fact that's been supported by many independent studies so when you increase minimums and incent selective harvest by the commercial sector to maximize catch values as quotas are being cut, you're asking for huge problems.

I'm not a construction worker and don't profess to be. You're not a technical or analytical guy so don't try to be. I've done more research on this fishery than you ever will with select data I believe is representative of the fishery, passed peer review, years on the water, sources I have in the industry and common sense. Do I believe MRIP is accurate, not at all. Do I believe 25% natural mortality is accurate, I have no idea. Do I believe recreational discard percentages are correct, I think anything involved with MRIP is questionable at best. But my analysis isn't made up of that data. The trends I've shown in the fishery coinciding with regulations, changes in the biomass, reductions in size and possession limits, reduction in recruitment etc. are reflective of what we're seeing in the fishery so if you wish to opine on something you know nothing about that's your prerogative. My work turned a lot of heads but never got the traction it deserved because it challenged the decisions being made managing this fishery which showed those decisions are actually hurting it more than helping it and being made for the benefit of economics and not fisheries management. Politics in other words. You think Mark Terceiro, Mike Luisi, Kiley Dancy, Chris Batsavage, Chris Moore, Brandon Muffley, or any of the other decision makers from NMFS, NEFSC, ASMFC or MAMFC will admit to their mistakes over the last two decades managing this fishery or any other? Too much money changing hands. Doesn't work that way, just as Michael Waine from ASA decided to play politics instead of addressing the issues we discussed with him years ago.

Instead we've gone from one of the most robust fisheries ever to continued declines in the biomass, quotas and regulations to the recreational sector over the last two decades coinciding with the continued use of increased size minimums as the preferred method to manage recreational catch. This year's massive quota cuts, an abysmal season to date and you want us to believe this happened because of what? Since you probably filleted more fish than me this year, almost all females I'm sure, I'll bow to your ultimate wisdom of the fishery as to why this is all happening and what needs to be done to correct it. I'll do that if you answer the one question I asked in my earlier post which is name one fishery being managed the same way this fishery is which is sustainable and growing. You can't because there aren't any.

We just had 2 full seasons of keeping fish smaller than 18” not back to 2007.
This was 2022 and 2023. 17” fish were still all females when we cut them up .
While you are the analytical one you REFUSE to see why all your data isn’t viewed in entirety , as when you say commercials discard rate is as high as their landings and they know it isn’t, it’s clouds all the good you did in the rest of your research .
You have always tried to double or even quadruple those discards .

Just as you,never knew about larger fluke drawing more money .
Then automatically want to claim they throw even more discards back for a higher profit .
Thats not even close to how they go,about the fishery .

Do I believe anyone involved in the fisheries management will admit they did something wrong .
Hell no, and stated that at the meeting when I said their data showed their miss management .

I believe a certain sector of the commercials are crushing the stocks , but it’s not our local ones ,
It’s the larger 7 day boats .
If they didn’t allow them to land fish outside of NC to complete their landings there , we more than likely wouldn’t be having the issues we have today .
.
My main argument is why should,recreational fisherman take the hit while those big cutting houses kill the resource ?
I think if they are allowing them to ruin that fishery , we should take every fish we can before they do .
Because if we don’t they made even more money on the fish we return .

[hammer4reel]

As to your question , there isn’t 1 fish that has been managed correctly .
One look at the limits of every fish we could catch here just 15 years ago , we can’t keep 1/3 of those limits today .

To see boats that used to catch boatloads of 15# bluefish daily , be happy to catch 2 pounders is sickening .

Sea bass are everywhere , can’t get away from them and they keep cutting those limits .

.only way fisheries management will ever happen correctly is if they do a clean sweep of everyone involved.

But it’s been well known for decades they would rather see us all stop fishing.
Goes back to catch share hearings with G Bush jr.

.and now with all the bullshit push for the wind turbines all over the oceans , they want you out there even less .
.
Put all the pieces together of why they hope every fishery dries up .

.

[AndyS]

In North Carolina they don't rod and reel fluke, it's all spear fishing, which by the way is becoming more and more popular here in N.J.

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by AndyS

In North Carolina they don't rod and reel fluke, it's all spear fishing, which by the way is becoming more and more popular here in N.J.

NC. Closed their recreational season for 2024 , and last year it was only 2 weeks long

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

NC. Closed their recreational season for 2024 , and last year it was only 2 weeks long

Is that for summer flounder or southern flounder?

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

As to your question , there isn’t 1 fishery that has been managed correctly .
One look at the limits of every fish we could catch here just 15 years ago , we can’t keep 1/3 of those limits today .

To see boats that used to catch boatloads of 15# bluefish daily , be happy to catch 2 pounders is sickening .

Sea bass are everywhere , can’t get away from them and they keep cutting those limits .

.only way fisheries management will ever happen correctly is if they do a clean sweep of everyone involved.

But it’s been well known for decades they would rather see us all stop fishing.
Goes back to catch share hearings with G Bush jr.

.and now with all the bullshit push for the wind turbines all over the oceans , they want you out there even less .
.
Put all the pieces together of why they hope every fishery dries up .

.

Again I agree with every point you've made. And if the fluke fishery continues being managed the way it is, it will fail. In my opinion, it's an absolute certainty. Have to go out and buy a lottery ticket There's still hope for both of us!

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

Again I agree with every point you've made. Have to go out and buy a lottery ticket There's still hope for both of us!

Let’s go catch some flatheads

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

Let’s go catch some flatheads

Any time you need a partner let me know. Love flathead fishing.