Winter Flounder report

[hammer4reel]

Tom , I think between those charts , the fluke charts , striped bass charts it’s time everyone involved is fired , and replaced.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results .

[teddysclaw]

Originally Posted by John D.

Dakota,

I am curious if there is better “action” in raritan bay and the rivers the past few years. Sure, most do not make the time, cost, effort commitment with a 2 fish limit but there are some that do....just curious if it has even gotten marginally better. These fish were being wiped out by the comms long beforethe early 1990s. People didn’t magically start loving flounder which increased the retail demand. The commercial netting interest has always existed, yet the species thrived.

The technology behind netting fish has gotten significantly better and more efficient. And the number of draggers have increased. So better, stronger, faster equipment + more draggers = huge increase in harvested flundies and sad fishermen

.L

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

Tom , I think between those charts , the fluke charts , striped bass charts it’s time everyone involved is fired , and replaced.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results .

I know this will piss some people off but I've spent a considerable amount of personal time the last three years educating myself about various fisheries, understanding the process and fisheries management bureaucracy which is ultimately responsible for the health of every fishery and analyzed oceans of data published in an effort to identify trends which could lead to remedial measures nursing these fisheries back to health. I had what I now believe to be false hope that my work could and would have a positive impact on the various and many groups which depend on these fisheries and assist regulatory agencies and industry associations in that endeavor. What I've found instead is a process in my opinion so broken, disjointed with so many personal and political agendas among state and federal governments that it makes the health care system seem relatively simple and straight-forward.

Fishery management, as complicated as it is, has one primary goal and that's to manage fisheries to a level of health and sustainability. There's a lot of sub headings that fall under that statement but in the end that's what we expect from fisheries management and the governing Councils. I agree with Dan's comments that heads should roll which will stir the pot but the pot needs to be stirred otherwise nothing will change and Washington will continue focusing on "Commerce" at the public's expense "aka the recreational angler" and associated businesses dependent on them including party boats and for hire charter businesses. What's happened to the winter flounder fishery (which is the same thing happening to the summer flounder fishery) is nothing short of gross negligence, it's unconscionable how these two fisheries have been and continue to be mismanaged.

John D to your question look at the first chart attached regarding winter flounder harvest from 1960 - 2016. Notice the lbs. harvested in '81 in excess of 40 million lbs. as well as the amounts harvested during the '80 - '83 time-frame which coincided with the extreme drop off in Recruitment (egg production) and SSB (reference second chart). 80% of the harvest in '81 for the Southern New England / Mid-Atlantic "SNEMA" region represented commercial and 20% recreational. Page 35 of the "2018 Winter Flounder Specifications" document in the attached link illustrates that percentage.

http://www.asmfc.org/files/Meetings/...sentations.pdf

Also reference page 13 in particular Recruitment, Spawning Stock Biomass and Special Comments section of the Winter Flounder 52nd Stock Assessment Workshop[ (last graph) specifying weak recruitment levels and their comment "If the weak recruitment and low reproductive rate continues, productivity and rebuilding of the stock will be less than projected." This excerpt was written in 2017, recruitment has been declining since 1980 for winter flounder from ~63 million eggs in '81 to ~7 million in 2010. That's a 90% absolute decline in recruitment statistics over a 30-yr period and the best management can say is "IF". Almost 40 years later fisheries management still haven't figured it out, isn't any more well versed understanding it or have a well thought out comprehensive plan to address it. Their entire focus has been catch which to a large degree created the problem with on-going size limit increases and or over zealous catch quotas leading to the deterioration in recruitment. How is that remotely possible when we have multiple billion dollar industries futures hanging in the balance while the resources of the federal government in the case of both winter and summer flounder have done nothing remedial in the last 35-40 years to address the issue. Not only have they not addressed it, they've caused it. You can have all the models you want for Peer Review, but if they don't factor sex and length information into the equation I don't see how they can be useful guiding policy decisions in these fisheries. Egg production is a factor of age and sexual maturity, age and sexual maturity coincide with length yet as recruitment implodes in both winter and summer flounder stocks fisheries management simply continues increasing size limits for recreational and market prices continue increasing the harvest of larger fish for commercials to compensate for significant cuts over the years in catch quotas.

Review the third graph reflecting SNEMA landings and compare commercial landings and discards to recreational in general but in particular in '81, ~16,000,000 metric tons for commercial versus ~3 million metric tons for recreational. How's that for an equitable allocation of a shared resource.

Next review the fourth chart from Ct. DEP illustrating size and age of winter flounder.. Flounder reach sexual maturity around age 3-4 which per the chart are fish averaging 11"- 12". Age 1-2 year old fish average 5"- 8". How many fillets from 5"- 8" inch fish do you think are brought to market? They're killed in the tow and tossed back dead which should be the future of the fishery while mature breeders are being harvested.

Will leave you with these statistics from the SNEMA Stock Assessment. In 2013, Winter Flounder Catch for Assessment was published at 1,074 metric tons, 1,063 metric tons commercial, 11 recreational or ~1% of the overall regional harvest. In '15, catch was 749 metric tons, 737 commercial, 12 recreational. In '16, catch was published to be 678 metric tons, commercial 643, recreational 35. Again good thing our possession limit was changed in 2010 to a 2-fish daily limit since our sacrifices are giving way to once again an extremely equitable allocation of a shared resource between commercial and recreational interests.

The winter flounder biomass hasn't moved to areas unknown, it's moved to fish Co-Op's, Wegmans, Whole Foods, restaurants and Sushi markets. It's gone, SSB destroyed in the process taking recruitment with it yet we continue to allow commercial harvest without remedial measures being considered to protect the spawn and rebuild the biomass. Remember this all started in the early 80's so don't want to hear about global warming, fish moving north, environmental issues or predatory impacts since this happened quickly and for obvious reasons. This is a problem fisheries management should have seen coming a mile away but chose to ignore, take a passive approach and do nothing proactive to prevent it so now the fishery for all practical purposes is lost to recreational anglers, a shadow of what it used to be for commercial operators and will continue being so for the foreseeable future. Over 40 million pounds harvested in '81 and ~2.5 million pounds harvested in '16, an absolute debacle. For a species which primarily releases their eggs in estuaries and not off shore, after ~38 years of recruitment tanking for no one from NMFS, ASMFC or MAMFC to understand why or have proactively put measures in place to prevent it's extensive decline is why I agree wholesale changes need to occur at the management level of these fisheries. The process is beyond broken. I'm not sure whose at fault but collectively management of the winter and summer flounder fisheries has been a complete failure. 40% increase in harvest for commercials in '19 when the same problems lingers with summer flounder which appeared on the radar screen with winter flounder back in the 80's is inexcusable. Another fishery that's going to be lost if measures aren't implemented sooner than later to rebuild recruitment and circumvent the continued decline of SSB in both fisheries.

I'm absolutely disgusted. If this is going to fall on deaf ears, it's not worth the effort and a lot of businesses and people's livelihoods are going to unfortunately continue suffering the consequences of bad management while the people making the policy decisions causing the carnage feel no impact financially or economically. Where's the accountability in all this, data couldn't be any clearer, it's the decisions making process that's completely clouded.

[NoLimit]

Originally Posted by dakota560

.l

i know this will piss some people off but i've spent a considerable amount of personal time the last three years educating myself about various fisheries, understanding the process and fisheries management bureaucracy which is ultimately responsible for the health of every fishery and analyzed oceans of data published in an effort to identify trends which could lead to remedial measures nursing these fisheries back to health. I had what i now believe to be false hope that my work could and would have a positive impact on the various and many groups which depend on these fisheries and assist regulatory agencies and industry associations in that endeavor. What i've found instead is a process in my opinion so broken, disjointed with so many personal and political agendas among state and federal governments that it makes the health care system seem relatively simple and straight-forward.

Fishery management, as complicated as it is, has one primary goal and that's to manage fisheries to a level of health and sustainability. There's a lot of sub headings that fall under that statement but in the end that's what we expect from fisheries management and the governing councils. I agree with dan's comments that heads should roll which will stir the pot but the pot needs to be stirred otherwise nothing will change and washington will continue focusing on "commerce" at the public's expense "aka the recreational angler" and associated businesses dependent on them including party boats and for hire charter businesses. What's happened to the winter flounder fishery (which is the same thing happening to the summer flounder fishery) is nothing short of gross negligence, it's unconscionable how these two fisheries have been and continue to be mismanaged.

John d to your question look at the first chart attached regarding winter flounder harvest from 1960 - 2016. Notice the lbs. Harvested in '81 in excess of 40 million lbs. As well as the amounts harvested during the '80 - '83 time-frame which coincided with the extreme drop off in recruitment (egg production) and ssb (reference second chart). 80% of the harvest in '81 for the southern new england / mid-atlantic "snema" region represented commercial and 20% recreational. Page 35 of the "2018 winter flounder specifications" document in the attached link illustrates that percentage.

http://www.asmfc.org/files/meetings/...sentations.pdf

also reference page 13 in particular recruitment, spawning stock biomass and special comments section of the winter flounder 52nd stock assessment workshop[ (last graph) specifying weak recruitment levels and their comment "if the weak recruitment and low reproductive rate continues, productivity and rebuilding of the stock will be less than projected." this excerpt was written in 2017, recruitment has been declining since 1980 for winter flounder from ~63 million eggs in '81 to ~7 million in 2010. That's a 90% absolute decline in recruitment statistics over a 30-yr period and the best management can say is "if". Almost 40 years later fisheries management still haven't figured it out, isn't any more well versed understanding it or have a well thought out comprehensive plan to address it. Their entire focus has been catch which to a large degree created the problem with on-going size limit increases and or over zealous catch quotas leading to the deterioration in recruitment. how is that remotely possible when we have multiple billion dollar industries futures hanging in the balance while the resources of the federal government in the case of both winter and summer flounder have done nothing remedial in the last 35-40 years to address the issue. Not only have they not addressed it, they've caused it. You can have all the models you want for peer review, but if they don't factor sex and length information into the equation i don't see how they can be useful guiding policy decisions in these fisheries. Egg production is a factor of age and sexual maturity, age and sexual maturity coincide with length yet as recruitment implodes in both winter and summer flounder stocks fisheries management simply continues increasing size limits for recreational and market prices continue increasing the harvest of larger fish for commercials to compensate for significant cuts over the years in catch quotas.

Review the third graph reflecting snema landings and compare commercial landings and discards to recreational in general but in particular in '81, ~16,000,000 metric tons for commercial versus ~3 million metric tons for recreational. How's that for an equitable allocation of a shared resource.

Next review the fourth chart from ct. Dep illustrating size and age of winter flounder.. Flounder reach sexual maturity around age 3-4 which per the chart are fish averaging 11"- 12". Age 1-2 year old fish average 5"- 8". How many fillets from 5"- 8" inch fish do you think are brought to market? They're killed in the tow and tossed back dead which should be the future of the fishery while mature breeders are being harvested.

Will leave you with these statistics from the snema stock assessment. in 2013, winter flounder catch for assessment was published at 1,074 metric tons, 1,063 metric tons commercial, 11 recreational or ~1% of the overall regional harvest. In '15, catch was 749 metric tons, 737 commercial, 12 recreational. In '16, catch was published to be 678 metric tons, commercial 643, recreational 35. again good thing our possession limit was changed in 2010 to a 2-fish daily limit since our sacrifices are giving way to once again an extremely equitable allocation of a shared resource between commercial and recreational interests.

The winter flounder biomass hasn't moved to areas unknown, it's moved to fish co-op's, wegmans, whole foods, restaurants and sushi markets. it's gone, ssb destroyed in the process taking recruitment with it yet we continue to allow commercial harvest without remedial measures being considered to protect the spawn and rebuild the biomass. remember this all started in the early 80's so don't want to hear about global warming, fish moving north, environmental issues or predatory impacts since this happened quickly and for obvious reasons. This is a problem fisheries management should have seen coming a mile away but chose to ignore, take a passive approach and do nothing proactive to prevent it so now the fishery for all practical purposes is lost to recreational anglers, a shadow of what it used to be for commercial operators and will continue being so for the foreseeable future. Over 40 million pounds harvested in '81 and ~2.5 million pounds harvested in '16, an absolute debacle. For a species which primarily releases their eggs in estuaries and not off shore, after ~38 years of recruitment tanking for no one from nmfs, asmfc or mamfc to understand why or have proactively put measures in place to prevent it's extensive decline is why i agree wholesale changes need to occur at the management level of these fisheries. The process is beyond broken. I'm not sure whose at fault but collectively management of the winter and summer flounder fisheries has been a complete failure. 40% increase in harvest for commercials in '19 when the same problems lingers with summer flounder which appeared on the radar screen with winter flounder back in the 80's is inexcusable. Another fishery that's going to be lost if measures aren't implemented sooner than later to rebuild recruitment and circumvent the continued decline of ssb in both fisheries.

I'm absolutely disgusted. If this is going to fall on deaf ears, it's not worth the effort and a lot of businesses and people's livelihoods are going to unfortunately continue suffering the consequences of bad management while the people making the policy decisions causing the carnage feel no impact financially or economically. Where's the accountability in all this, data couldn't be any clearer, it's the decisions making process that's completely clouded.

worth repeating!!!!!! The commercial draggers have exterminated winter flounder. PS: Where are the environmentalists on this issue. Here is a proven fact - a whole species of fish exterminated on their watch.

[bulletbob]

sobering statistics.. Problem is this.. When people willingly pay $20-$25 for a single in the round flounder and fluke, or $18 for a 15 inch sea bass, or $8 for a plastic wrapped 2 pack of porgies so rotten and stinky that they are a dark grey color with milky blue eyes and dark brown gills, we will never see any changes.. The fish are too valuable these days... The nasty little half decomposed Sea Bass that are MAYBE 14-15 inches, cost the same or more than a 1 1/2 pound lobster.. Are you KIDDING me??.

things will never change I fear.. Just remember there are a lot of people that would be happy and would pay dearly for the privilege to catch and render into sushi the last known bluefin tuna in the ocean, or hunt, shoot and mount the last known grizzly bear in yellowstone.. Sadly its the way we are...bob

[reason162]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't it been shown that winter flounder are an extremely discrete species, and there is virtually no mixing between different inshore populations, let alone inshore/offshore populations?

From what I read...even if we listened to the biologists decades ago and imposed a flat moratorium, the recovery was in doubt. There simply weren't enough individuals to avoid inbreeding in the various habitats, and since they do not migrate on/offshore, there is no opportunity for increasing genetic material or any chance at rebuilding the stock. As it stands, the flounder we're seeing are pretty much the last of its kind, and when they're gone (say from shark river) they're gone for good.

Originally Posted by reason162

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't it been shown that winter flounder are an extremely discrete species, and there is virtually no mixing between different inshore populations, let alone inshore/offshore populations?

From what I read...even if we listened to the biologists decades ago and imposed a flat moratorium, the recovery was in doubt. There simply weren't enough individuals to avoid inbreeding in the various habitats, and since they do not migrate on/offshore, there is no opportunity for increasing genetic material or any chance at rebuilding the stock. As it stands, the flounder we're seeing are pretty much the last of its kind, and when they're gone (say from shark river) they're gone for good.

Reason I'll be the first to admit I've never read or heard anything along the lines of your post. Please provide source. And I'm including in that all the material I've read from Winter Flounder Stock Assessments. The Winter Flounder fishery is broken into three separate regions, I initially posted two erroneously. There's Gulf of Maine (GOM), Georges Banks stock and our stock referred to as Southern New England / Mid-Atlantic or SNEMA and not one publication I've read mentions anything along the lines of what your post suggests. Like I said, please post your source.

Playing devil's advocate, if what you say is true why did the fishery thrive for years? There is an east / west or inshore / offshore migration which has been happening for decades if not centuries, not sure where you heard there's no migration. The fishery was over-harvested by commercials in the early 80's killing SSB and destroying recruitment. Look at the statistics. If the fishery is as sensitive as you suggest, why are commercials still allowed to essentially exclusively harvest it in the condition it's in? SSB down over 90%, egg production down even more and commercial harvest is still allowed.............why? Still allowed when recreational for all practical purposes was shut down in 2010 with the 2-fish possession limit.

This fishery like so many others when commercial pressure wasn't where it's at today and ex-vessel prices weren't close to where they are today thrived EVERY YEAR. This is a classic case of over-harvest by commercial operations of a resource and destroying the reproductive strength of the fishery in the process. No magic, no smoke and mirrors, this is failed fisheries management 101. Anyone who thinks otherwise is wrong. In my opinion the group responsible for the decimation of the stock shouldn't be the only group still benefiting from it......why do you think that is? That's a question everyone would like the Council to answer. Almost 40 years ago SSB and R tanked, bottom fell out and in 2017 the powers to be are still trying to understand why. This is as tragic a story regarding the flaws in the current process as you could provide. In my opinion, the fishery should be shut down for as long as it takes until SSB and recruitment numbers return to where they were in the 70's and early 80's and the stock is considered stable. As my position has been all along, every one should have access to the resource but no one groups interest should be at the expense of all others. Well commercial harvest and fisheries mismanagement cost recreational anglers this resource no matter how you read the tea leaves.

When's the last time anyone went on a party boat for winter flounder? How many party boats today sail for winter flounder? It's probably sometime in the early 2000's. We're headed in exactly the same direction for exactly the same reasons with summer flounder and it's entirely because the fishery is being managed for commerce and not for the health of the fishery and all related interested parties. 1% of the '13 winter flounder harvest was recreational and 99% commercial. How is legislation passed where that is even remotely possible. That just brought the definition of "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH" to an entirely new level.

Recreational and commercial need to come together for every fishery to survive in today's world of growing demand. If the above allocation of winter flounder is the definition of coming together then recreational anglers should figure out how to go out of compliance and shut the entire fishery down for commercial as well if that's what it's going to take for us to have a voice. I've seen too many fisheries in my life lost to mismanagement, greed, illicit fishing practices and failed political oversight to last a lifetime. Don't want to see two more added to that list. If this is the corner recreational anglers, party boats and for hire operators are being backed into, shut the fishery down until we have a seat at the table and a voice which is recognized.

[reason162]

Originally Posted by dakota560

Reason I'll be the first to admit I've never read or heard anything along the lines of your post. Please provide source.

Here's a couple of abstract links, I know I've read the full study years ago...maybe you could find it:

https://news.stonybrook.edu/newsroom...ongislandbays/

https://you.stonybrook.edu/frisk/res...under-ecology/

The stock assessment and what is apparently an isolated population distribution for winter flounder are not in conflict. The surveys are just counting fish...you can perform the survey assuming flounder are as "mixed" as most other saltwater species, but only genetic analysis can yield the data necessary to conclude inbreeding, and hence...extreme isolation in spawning populations.

The other interesting thing is (and again I don't have ready access to the paper but I trust my memory isn't failing), climate change is hypothesized to reverse the predator/prey balance re winter flounder vs crab/shrimp. A fraction of a few degrees cooler, and flounder eggs hatch first, and flounder larvae eats juvenile crustaceans. A few fractions of a degree warmer, and the arthropods hatch first, and they in turn prey on juvenile flounder.

This was a few years ago, not sure if they ever reached a conclusion in that study...but if true, it would be the ultimate FU to winter flounder from the universe.

In any case, I am all for restrictions on comm fishing, but it seems like in this case --- specifically re inshore flounder --- the story is more complicated than meets the eye. Unless there is some new-found enthusiasm for a stocking program...I wouldn't count on any kind of "rebound," even if they declare a moratorium tomorrow (or 20 years ago).

[NoLimit]

If they are seeing a couple hundred breeding flounder in a bay, that seems like plenty of genetic material to avoid inbreeding. As for Global warming changing the ocean temp a couple degrees and exterminating crustaceans or flounder, that is BS. Everyone knows that wind direction and run off will change water temps by a dozen degrees so predicting doom from a supposed change of a couple degrees due to "man made" issues is nonsense.

If there was an immediate ban on commercial landing of winter flounder, they would rebound nicely. Stripers disappeared until the commercial moratorium and they are back strong.

We should get word to Trump - his sons are very active in hunting and fishing. They are known to fish this area and it would be a tremendous boon for the local economy to get hundreds of boats back out in all the area rivers every St Patty's day.

[reason162]

Originally Posted by NoLimit

If they are seeing a couple hundred breeding flounder in a bay, that seems like plenty of genetic material to avoid inbreeding. As for Global warming changing the ocean temp a couple degrees and exterminating crustaceans or flounder, that is BS. Everyone knows that wind direction and run off will change water temps by a dozen degrees so predicting doom from a supposed change of a couple degrees due to "man made" issues is nonsense.

If there was an immediate ban on commercial landing of winter flounder, they would rebound nicely. Stripers disappeared until the commercial moratorium and they are back strong.

We should get word to Trump - his sons are very active in hunting and fishing. They are known to fish this area and it would be a tremendous boon for the local economy to get hundreds of boats back out in all the area rivers every St Patty's day.

It's pretty remarkable how every single thing you wrote is just flat wrong.