Fluke Stock Theory

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

Let’s go catch some flatheads

Any time you need a partner let me know. Love flathead fishing.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

Southern

That's what I thought.

[FISHGERE]

Nailed it very true I’m done gonna be a big fishing sale in brick soon fluking sucks due to everything u stated

[dales529]

Some difference of opinion on the data between you and Capt Dan but well thought out discussions and data.

My question is what would you guys like to do with the data? Broad Bill / Capt Dan.we have discussed this many times but rather than keep posting here what are next steps??????

Arrange a meeting with Council members? Phone call? I could arrange with 1 council member but again it has to be both sides open to each other or call gets shut down.
You guys apply for the open council memberships (2) Open on NJMFC or MAMFC (not sure whats open) etc.

Yes I get that's a dead road to you and many others as NJMFC and last few Governors have been reluctant to appoint ANY applicants from recreational but this has to go farther than these posts to get anywhere.

Shame lack of recreational fishermen support defuncted many recreational known support groups and the Facebook groups that popped up also have accomplished nothing.

Always comes back to many opinions and minimal support by recs so it goes year after year with tons of data and many tons of opinion but in the end its just talk.
How do we move talk to legislation? Have to start in NJ IMHO

Please no one say "lobbyists" as we have had those and no one supported them to the $$ they needed.

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by dales529

Some difference of opinion on the data between you and Capt Dan but well thought out discussions and data.

My question is what would you guys like to do with the data? Broad Bill / Capt Dan.we have discussed this many times but rather than keep posting here what are next steps??????

Arrange a meeting with Council members? Phone call? I could arrange with 1 council member but again it has to be both sides open to each other or call gets shut down.
You guys apply for the open council memberships (2) Open on NJMFC or MAMFC (not sure whats open) etc.

Yes I get that's a dead road to you and many others as NJMFC and last few Governors have been reluctant to appoint ANY applicants from recreational but this has to go farther than these posts to get anywhere.

Shame lack of recreational fishermen support defuncted many recreational known support groups and the Facebook groups that popped up also have accomplished nothing.

Always comes back to many opinions and minimal support by recs so it goes year after year with tons of data and many tons of opinion but in the end its just talk.
How do we move talk to legislation? Have to start in NJ IMHO

Please no one say "lobbyists" as we have had those and no one supported them to the $$ they needed.

I was originally told they wanted to see all his work at a time other than seasons discussions .
And he did exactly that .
IMO the only way it will get an honest look is if NMFS gets a complete over haul .
Or a real lawsuit is filed .

Sadly recreational fisherman won’t ever have the resource to do that .
Known fact most won’t even donate a buck .

At the big round table with Chris Megan at that time the head of the ASA who does have the resource to bring lawsuits . He and Mike Waine acted like they would get involved .
It was a big stroke show as they didn’t do squat .

It’s sad that a fishery that’s so important to NJ , where billions of dollars are spent means nothing to the powers to be .

.
As far as NJ council doing anything , I don’t see it being able to do much .
I think they try their best to manage what’s left of the resource for our best interests . But major change has to come from a federal level








.

[Broad Bill]

I'd first like to share a post from a well respected charter Captain in Massachusetts who runs a very successful business and has been at this for over 25 years and then Dave I'll reply to your post from yesterday. I asked Captain Jason how the fluke season has been this years and his reply is below. I think his words are very telling regarding the state of the fishery and what the future holds in store if NMFS doesn't switch gears soon and radically in how this incredibly vital stock for the Mid-Atlantic / New England region is being managed. Keep in mind, Massachusetts regulations for 2024 from a vessel is a 5 fish daily limit at 17.50", not even the 18" limit we have in New Jersey:

Tom,

I agree with you 100% on the discard mortality from the commercial sector. Here in Ma. inshore waters I have given up completely on fluke for the first time in 20 years (as long as I have been working out of Westport in the summer). The fluke fishing has been going downhill for the past decade and the "circling of the drain" seems to be in it's final stages. Funny how management works: They will say that the rec fishermen are obviously catching too many so they will cut what we can catch (they could increase what we "could" catch, it would make no difference) but they will not do anything to slow down the draggers until there is absolutely nothing. Then they will say fun things (I hear these all the time) like: "couldn't see that coming" or "it must be something else like predators or pollution or global warming but not the draggers, they couldn't be hurting the fish populations".

I'm told by some charter captains I know who fish Nantucket Shoals that they are seeing more and more draggers out there and they are getting closer and closer to where the rod and reel guys are fishing as they deplete each area. Those big fluke are the last of the breeding stock and they are all but gone now. Worse than that (if you can believe it) is the pounding the fluke get over the winter while they are holding in deep water offshore. Each state has a insane "winter quota" that they try to catch and when they are not catching them fast enough the states increase the trip limits to 'help" the draggers catch the quota faster rather stopping to think that perhaps those quotas were not justified in the first place. Then there is the fear that if they do not make the quota one year that their quota would be cut the next year and the state would "lose revenue". They fail to calculate the lost revenue of rec fishermen "not fishing" like the 1000 boats/day that "would be" fishing for (winter) flounder each spring in Boston Harbor that do not fish for flounder at all now that they allowed the draggers to wipe them out.

They really need to stop all dragging in all state waters in all states to give the fish at least a little break.

The state of Massachusetts has told be point blank that they have no interest in curtailing dragging in state waters....

Captain Jason Colby
Little Sister Charters

I imagine the winter quota Captain Jason is referring to has a lot to do with the NC / Maryland fleet we've discussed ad nauseum which harvests almost their entire quota in the winter months. All very valid points by Captain Jason which have been previously posted on this site many times and in my opinion are becoming more the norm up and down the coast than the exception.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by dales529

Some difference of opinion on the data between you and Capt Dan but well thought out discussions and data.

My question is what would you guys like to do with the data? Broad Bill / Capt Dan.we have discussed this many times but rather than keep posting here what are next steps??????

Arrange a meeting with Council members? Phone call? I could arrange with 1 council member but again it has to be both sides open to each other or call gets shut down.
You guys apply for the open council memberships (2) Open on NJMFC or MAMFC (not sure whats open) etc.

Yes I get that's a dead road to you and many others as NJMFC and last few Governors have been reluctant to appoint ANY applicants from recreational but this has to go farther than these posts to get anywhere.

Shame lack of recreational fishermen support defuncted many recreational known support groups and the Facebook groups that popped up also have accomplished nothing.

Always comes back to many opinions and minimal support by recs so it goes year after year with tons of data and many tons of opinion but in the end its just talk.
How do we move talk to legislation? Have to start in NJ IMHO

Please no one say "lobbyists" as we have had those and no one supported them to the $$ they needed.

Dave my humble opinion after many years of trying.

First I agree with all of Dan's post. What I learned from sending out material to 156 Members of ASMFC, MAMFC, NMFS, NEFSC and others is almost no one replied and the Council ended up censoring my analysis in their briefing materials for year end regulations. You were copied on many of those emails so you know. There was one individual from the Advisory Panel, name eludes me, who said if your trying to address this with the Commission or Council you're barking up the wrong tree as quotas and regulatory options are already decided at the federal level and the Council "ASMFC" and Commission "MAMFC" basically choose between options already determined or argue for alternate options within the guidelines of Conservation Equivalency.

Meaning the fight as Dan mentioned is at the federal level and NMFS. In the big picture pecking order, its the federal government "NMFS", MAMFC and ASMFC, commercials and a distant fourth the recreational sector.

For any change to occur, NMFS needs to first agree the fishery has a problem. That might be the biggest hurdle because it's not just agreeing to that, it's admitting it and they don't like the general public playing in their sand box nor do they like admitting their policy decisions have hurt certain stocks. As Dan eluded to, I've often wondered about litigation but that requires major funding, extensive amounts of time and resources which the recreational sector doesn't have. And organizations like ASA have done nothing beneficial for this fishery so expecting any assistance from them prospectively is I'm afraid wishful thinking.

The person who I had the most productive interaction with on all the emails and materials I emailed out was Jim Lovgren, Point Pleasant Cooperative. Jim is I believe a third or fourth generation commercial fisherman and held in high esteem in the commercial fishing industry. I think Jim has a membership on this site and if so I hope he's listening as he's a voice of reason and well respected among his constituents. I had more productive and intelligent interaction with Jim on my many email exchanges than all other members of the three agencies tasked with actual management of summer flounder combined who typically didn't reply at all. Another person I met in my journey is Greg DiDomenico, Executive Director Garden State Seafood Association "GSSA" which represents a substantial population of commercial boats in New Jersey. Link to their website is below:

https://www.gardenstateseafood.org/about-us

Basically how I feel after my time spent in these matters is in order for anything to change, it needs to happen from the bottom up because I don't believe it will happen from the top down even though that's exactly where it should start. We need the commercials more than the commercials need the recreational community but in my opinion that doesn't mean we don't have a common goal which is the sustainability of all these fisheries that drives both sectors in different ways. And if both sectors can have a united front towards NMFS, I think there's a possibility for change before we get to an inflection point with many stocks and they disappear or are irreparably damaged. If they are, which personally I believe is where this fishery is, the benefits shore communities have enjoyed built on the foundation of both a robust commercial and recreational fishing community will tragically disappear with them.

I'd be willing to be involved if a sit down round table discussion could be arranged with commercial leadership to discuss their thoughts and a path forward on how each sector can help the other and be stronger jointly as opposed to severally. Right now, in my opinion, the people who know the least about these fisheries and spend no actual on water time are the ones making decisions and largely responsible for mismanaging one fishery after another. The federal government holds all the cards but the commercial sector is very strong, well funded and very organized. If there's a way of having a joint coalition to fight Washington, maybe collectively working together to effectuate change as opposed to NMFS pitting the two sectors against each other would be a more effective way of securing the future of these stocks.

How we'd start that process is the million dollar question. Comments?

[dales529]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

Dave my humble opinion after many years of trying.

First I agree with all of Dan's post. What I learned from sending out material to 156 Members of ASMFC, MAMFC, NMFS, NEFSC and others is almost no one replied and the Council ended up censoring my analysis in their briefing materials for year end regulations. You were copied on many of those emails so you know. There was one individual from the Advisory Panel, name eludes me, who said if your trying to address this with the Commission or Council you're barking up the wrong tree as quotas and regulatory options are already decided at the federal level and the Council "ASMFC" and Commission "MAMFC" basically choose between options already determined or argue for alternate options within the guidelines of Conservation Equivalency.

Meaning the fight as Dan mentioned is at the federal level and NMFS. In the big picture pecking order, its the federal government "NMFS", MAMFC and ASMFC, commercials and a distant fourth the recreational sector.

For any change to occur, NMFS needs to first agree the fishery has a problem. That might be the biggest hurdle because it's not just agreeing to that, it's admitting it and they don't like the general public playing in their sand box nor do they like admitting their policy decisions have hurt certain stocks. As Dan eluded to, I've often wondered about litigation but that requires major funding, extensive amounts of time and resources which the recreational sector doesn't have. And organizations like ASA have done nothing beneficial for this fishery so expecting any assistance from them prospectively is I'm afraid wishful thinking.

The person who I had the most productive interaction with on all the emails and materials I emailed out was Jim Lovgren, Point Pleasant Cooperative. Jim is I believe a third or fourth generation commercial fisherman and held in high esteem in the commercial fishing industry. I think Jim has a membership on this site and if so I hope he's listening as he's a voice of reason and well respected among his constituents. I had more productive and intelligent interaction with Jim on my many email exchanges than all other members of the three agencies tasked with actual management of summer flounder combined who typically didn't reply at all. Another person I met in my journey is Greg DiDomenico, Executive Director Garden State Seafood Association "GSSA" which represents a substantial population of commercial boats in New Jersey. Link to their website is below:

https://www.gardenstateseafood.org/about-us

Basically how I feel after my time spent in these matters is in order for anything to change, it needs to happen from the bottom up because I don't believe it will happen from the top down even though that's exactly where it should start. We need the commercials more than the commercials need the recreational community but in my opinion that doesn't mean we don't have a common goal which is the sustainability of all these fisheries that drives both sectors in different ways. And if both sectors can have a united front towards NMFS, I think there's a possibility for change before we get to an inflection point with many stocks and they disappear or are irreparably damaged. If they are, which personally I believe is where this fishery is, the benefits shore communities have enjoyed built on the foundation of both a robust commercial and recreational fishing community will tragically disappear with them.

I'd be willing to be involved if a sit down round table discussion could be arranged with commercial leadership to discuss their thoughts and a path forward on how each sector can help the other and be stronger jointly as opposed to severally. Right now, in my opinion, the people who know the least about these fisheries and spend no actual on water time are the ones making decisions and largely responsible for mismanaging one fishery after another. The federal government holds all the cards but the commercial sector is very strong, well funded and very organized. If there's a way of having a joint coalition to fight Washington, maybe collectively working together to effectuate change as opposed to NMFS pitting the two sectors against each other would be a more effective way of securing the future of these stocks.

How we'd start that process is the million dollar question. Comments?

OK so looking back at our emails from 2019 -2020 some Feds MAMFC did reply like Kiley / Dustin etc . While that phone call didn't happen an avenue to reopen the conversation? Not sure your data was censored in any way but let me know as I am not seeing that in our email exchanges.

Also and I know you hate this is that to move forward in my opinion we have to get your data Peer Reviewed as that is the only way it will get attention. How we do that I am working on but assume an independent source, Which could also be an issue but willing to try going down that rabbit hole.

Next I would keep sending the data which you already have weekly to MAMFC, ASMFC, etc and keep pounding it as you seem so passionate about the data:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKtbmzsc0m8

I agree with getting Jim and possibly Kevin on board from the commercial side. Looking back at our email trail we had something going so lets renew it BUT we have to play in their Fed sandbox more than they have to in ours and yes you hate that but suck it up it is what it is.
Talk soon

[dales529]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

I was originally told they wanted to see all his work at a time other than seasons discussions .
And he did exactly that .
IMO the only way it will get an honest look is if NMFS gets a complete over haul .
Or a real lawsuit is filed .

Sadly recreational fisherman won’t ever have the resource to do that .
Known fact most won’t even donate a buck .

At the big round table with Chris Megan at that time the head of the ASA who does have the resource to bring lawsuits . He and Mike Waine acted like they would get involved .
It was a big stroke show as they didn’t do squat .

It’s sad that a fishery that’s so important to NJ , where billions of dollars are spent means nothing to the powers to be .

.
As far as NJ council doing anything , I don’t see it being able to do much .
I think they try their best to manage what’s left of the resource for our best interests . But major change has to come from a federal level








.

Agreed/ Not sorry I brought you into that roundtable meeting at the Expo but yes ASA respone was zero and disappointing to say the least.
Not sure data was not reviewed based on season discussions but like Rutgers not peer reviewed

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by dales529

OK so looking back at our emails from 2019 -2020 some Feds MAMFC did reply like Kiley / Dustin etc . While that phone call didn't happen an avenue to reopen the conversation? Not sure your data was censored in any way but let me know as I am not seeing that in our email exchanges.

Also and I know you hate this is that to move forward in my opinion we have to get your data Peer Reviewed as that is the only way it will get attention. How we do that I am working on but assume an independent source, Which could also be an issue but willing to try going down that rabbit hole.

Next I would keep sending the data which you already have weekly to MAMFC, ASMFC, etc and keep pounding it as you seem so passionate about the data:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKtbmzsc0m8

I agree with getting Jim and possibly Kevin on board from the commercial side. Looking back at our email trail we had something going so lets renew it BUT we have to play in their Fed sandbox more than they have to in ours and yes you hate that but suck it up it is what it is.
Talk soon

Dave lets get a few thing clear. Kiley Dancy and Dustin Learning at the time were staff members and all calls or correspondence had to go through them. That was the job. Dustin Learning took over for Kirby Rootes-Murdy who is now a Renewable Energy Program Specialist at Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. Kiley and Dustin were a pleasure to deal with and very helpful but they weren't decision makers. The key decision makers and state representatives were the ones I referred to as never replying or engaging in issues raised.

Not sure my work was censored, really? Look at the following link which has material I sent as part of briefing materials for the November 2019 meeting to discuss 2020 measures. Pages 31 through 101 is essentially all my work, analysis and emails with over a hundred people involved with the management of this fishery.

https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...es_2019-12.pdf

Fast forward to 2021 and the below link I sent on November 30, 2021 discussing measures for 2022. The briefing materials included my email and only the URL with my analysis meaning anyone looking at a hard copy of the briefing material only saw the URL and not the content. My email is on page 25.

https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...es_2021-12.pdf

Shortly afterward in 2022, the voice you love, Chair Mike Luisi, adopted a resolution where he himself determined what material would be included in briefing materials and it was strictly limited to short comments. That ended my analysis which I submitted from being included in either the briefing material or supplemental materials. In addition, all email addresses of Council, Committee and Staff Members were removed from the site. That change was made because I was Andy Dufresne in Shawshank Redemption sending a letter a day asking the state for funding for the prison library. My work was censored from that point on.

I have absolutely no problem with my work being Peer Reviewed so I'm not sure where that notion is coming from as everything I've submitted in my analysis of the stock is predicated on data which is a result of systems and protocols which have already been Peer Reviewed.

In my opinion, pounding ASMFC and MAMFC is what I did for the better part of five years resulting in nada. If you recall, if the Council Member you refer to is who I think it is, remember he said and I quote "You can send as many charts and emails as you want, it won't make any difference whatsoever". I'm not wasting time doing that again.

"Suck it up", you're kidding me right? Whatever amount of time you think I've put into trying to change the fate of this fishery, triple it. What I've said is NMFS and the agencies tasked with managing this stock don't like people like me playing in their sandbox. I never said I didn't want to play in theirs, I've actually said the exact opposite. I want to work with NMFS, ASMFC, MAMFC, NJMFC. I'm not the roadblock my friend. You've said it yourself a hundred times, no one has ever said my analysis and conclusions are wrong, they just don't want to acknowledge I might be right.

So I'll ask you the same question you asked Dan and me. How do we get an audience to push this forward. I look at the people on the advisory panel and ask myself why this fishery is in the condition it is. Steve Witthuhn NY for hire, great guy with the same concerns I have and who I've shared all my analysis with. Michael Waine, ASA recreational who we've discussed. Greg Hueth, recreation Big Mohawk. W Howard Bogan, for hire. Charles Witek, recreational. And if you look at the Committee Members, there's some big names there including the Chair. This is my concern about the solution going through ASMFC or MAMFC because these are talented people intimately involved in the industry with different backgrounds and perspectives already yet we sit here looking at a dying fishery. I agree with Dan, the fight needs to be at the federal level and needs to focus on the problems facing the fishery as opposed to politics, economics, season lengths and quota allocations. The question is how do we get there as no one I've met ever wants or can arrange that discussion with NMFS.

I truly try keeping the faith and shying away from a fatalist attitude but please don't make posts suggesting I haven't been the open minded one here and reached out hundreds of times trying to create constructive dialogue with all these people. Remember, Jim Donofrio said the paper I put together when I first got involved, which was published in the Fisherman Magazine, was the best representation of the fishery he'd ever seen. Everyone from RFA and SSFFF including Jim Hutchinson agreed with that statement. Then politics got in the way and it died on the vine due to no lack of effort by me. So I'll re-engage if there's a clear path forward but as I said I believe we need a joint effort with commercial leadership, have everyone agree there's a serious problem with this stock and work together on a comprehensive plan to manage the fishery differently than it's been managed over the last two decades.