Fluke Stock Theory

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by reason162

I don't know what to say - that is the polar opposite from what I hear from people who fish from Montauk on north (regular patrons of party/charter boats + captains).

And its the polar opposite of people I know in the charter business and private boat owners north of NY / NJ as well.

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

How long has it been since I've caught and filleted a fluke, July of this year.
What's your point?

I've always said most fish over 18" are females so not sure what your comment is responding to. You can revisit all my prior posts if you wish. Do males typically stage offshore more than females, maybe that's today's conventional wisdom after all these years but it's not what Rutgers study showed. When's the last time you filleted a fish under 18" to see if it was male or female? Couldn't be later than 2007 which was the last time the minimum size limit was less than 18" in New Jersey at 17". I do however know back then many fish that size and smaller when the regulations allowed the recreational sector to harvest those smaller sizes many more fish being harvested were males and yes that was from filleting many fluke.

An 18" male fluke is about 8-9 years old, how many male fluke do you think in todays world actually live that long between natural mortality and year round commercial onslaught? About five years ago, two male fluke were given honorable mention in trawl studies in a presentation Kiley Dancy gave in Delaware. Their sizes were 20" and 21"! Even if males have a tendency of staging more offshore which I'd question, harvesting 18" plus fish will continue killing off almost exclusively female breeders which will be the ultimate death of this fishery.

Stretching my imagination, really. Question, when party boats catch hundreds of shorts and return to the docks with 7 keepers, how many of those same fish do you think commercials would kill if they worked that same patch of fish. I know commercials can keep 14" and up but that's not the size they're after, they retain the largest fish to get the highest catch value. So if you think federal observer numbers are wrong and commercials are reporting accurate discard percentages on VTR's or their discard to landing ratio is anywhere near what's being reported, you can keep believing that delusion.

FG monitors landings, they have no idea what discards at sea are and they're too stretched out to control illegal harvest by commercials. It's a problem in every state and one boat can do tremendous damage to the stock. Codfather and more recently Montauk FV New Age, owner operator Christopher Winkler, to mention a few. Black market commercial netting is rampant.

Commercials only catching their quota because it was lowered, I'm not even sure what you're responding to since I never brought that up. I do agree that fluke are getting pounded more than ever because of cuts in other fisheries so we agree on that.

I used NMFS data against them to illustrate the flaws in their policies. My essential conclusions were increased size limits to recreational pushed more access of the overall fishery to commercial at the recreational sector's expense. That's a fact. I showed that increases in size minimums had a direct correlations every year since 2000 to reductions in the proportion of females to males in the stock based on their own studies. That's a fact and one anyone whose fished this stock will attest to. And as the female population got clobbered, recruitment followed suit. That would seem to be common sense, kill the breeders and recruitment will suffer dearly. Females grow larger and live longer, a fact that's been supported by many independent studies so when you increase minimums and incent selective harvest by the commercial sector to maximize catch values as quotas are being cut, you're asking for huge problems.

I'm not a construction worker and don't profess to be. You're not a technical or analytical guy so don't try to be. I've done more research on this fishery than you ever will with select data I believe is representative of the fishery, passed peer review, years on the water, sources I have in the industry and common sense. Do I believe MRIP is accurate, not at all. Do I believe 25% natural mortality is accurate, I have no idea. Do I believe recreational discard percentages are correct, I think anything involved with MRIP is questionable at best. But my analysis isn't made up of that data. The trends I've shown in the fishery coinciding with regulations, changes in the biomass, reductions in size and possession limits, reduction in recruitment etc. are reflective of what we're seeing in the fishery so if you wish to opine on something you know nothing about that's your prerogative. My work turned a lot of heads but never got the traction it deserved because it challenged the decisions being made managing this fishery which showed those decisions are actually hurting it more than helping it and being made for the benefit of economics and not fisheries management. Politics in other words. You think Mark Terceiro, Mike Luisi, Kiley Dancy, Chris Batsavage, Chris Moore, Brandon Muffley, or any of the other decision makers from NMFS, NEFSC, ASMFC or MAMFC will admit to their mistakes over the last two decades managing this fishery or any other? Too much money changing hands. Doesn't work that way, just as Michael Waine from ASA decided to play politics instead of addressing the issues we discussed with him years ago.

Instead we've gone from one of the most robust fisheries ever to continued declines in the biomass, quotas and regulations to the recreational sector over the last two decades coinciding with the continued use of increased size minimums as the preferred method to manage recreational catch. This year's massive quota cuts, an abysmal season to date and you want us to believe this happened because of what? Since you probably filleted more fish than me this year, almost all females I'm sure, I'll bow to your ultimate wisdom of the fishery as to why this is all happening and what needs to be done to correct it. I'll do that if you answer the one question I asked in my earlier post which is name one fishery being managed the same way this fishery is which is sustainable and growing. You can't because there aren't any.

We just had 2 full seasons of keeping fish smaller than 18” not back to 2007.
This was 2022 and 2023. 17” fish were still all females when we cut them up .
While you are the analytical one you REFUSE to see why all your data isn’t viewed in entirety , as when you say commercials discard rate is as high as their landings and they know it isn’t, it’s clouds all the good you did in the rest of your research .
You have always tried to double or even quadruple those discards .

Just as you,never knew about larger fluke drawing more money .
Then automatically want to claim they throw even more discards back for a higher profit .
Thats not even close to how they go,about the fishery .

Do I believe anyone involved in the fisheries management will admit they did something wrong .
Hell no, and stated that at the meeting when I said their data showed their miss management .

I believe a certain sector of the commercials are crushing the stocks , but it’s not our local ones ,
It’s the larger 7 day boats .
If they didn’t allow them to land fish outside of NC to complete their landings there , we more than likely wouldn’t be having the issues we have today .
.
My main argument is why should,recreational fisherman take the hit while those big cutting houses kill the resource ?
I think if they are allowing them to ruin that fishery , we should take every fish we can before they do .
Because if we don’t they made even more money on the fish we return .

[hammer4reel]

As to your question , there isn’t 1 fish that has been managed correctly .
One look at the limits of every fish we could catch here just 15 years ago , we can’t keep 1/3 of those limits today .

To see boats that used to catch boatloads of 15# bluefish daily , be happy to catch 2 pounders is sickening .

Sea bass are everywhere , can’t get away from them and they keep cutting those limits .

.only way fisheries management will ever happen correctly is if they do a clean sweep of everyone involved.

But it’s been well known for decades they would rather see us all stop fishing.
Goes back to catch share hearings with G Bush jr.

.and now with all the bullshit push for the wind turbines all over the oceans , they want you out there even less .
.
Put all the pieces together of why they hope every fishery dries up .

.

[AndyS]

In North Carolina they don't rod and reel fluke, it's all spear fishing, which by the way is becoming more and more popular here in N.J.

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by AndyS

In North Carolina they don't rod and reel fluke, it's all spear fishing, which by the way is becoming more and more popular here in N.J.

NC. Closed their recreational season for 2024 , and last year it was only 2 weeks long

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

We just had 2 full seasons of keeping fish smaller than 18” not back to 2007.
This was 2022 and 2023. 17” fish were still all females when we cut them up .
While you are the analytical one you REFUSE to see why all your data isn’t viewed in entirety , as when you say commercials discard rate is as high as their landings and they know it isn’t, it’s clouds all the good you did in the rest of your research .
You have always tried to double or even quadruple those discards .

Just as you,never knew about larger fluke drawing more money .
Then automatically want to claim they throw even more discards back for a higher profit .
Thats not even close to how they go,about the fishery .

Do I believe anyone involved in the fisheries management will admit they did something wrong .
Hell no, and stated that at the meeting when I said their data showed their miss management .

I believe a certain sector of the commercials are crushing the stocks , but it’s not our local ones ,
It’s the larger 7 day boats .
If they didn’t allow them to land fish outside of NC to complete their landings there , we more than likely wouldn’t be having the issues we have today .
.
My main argument is why should,recreational fisherman take the hit while those big cutting houses kill the resource ?
I think if they are allowing them to ruin that fishery , we should take every fish we can before they do .
Because if we don’t they made even more money on the fish we return .

Now we have the foundation of an intellectual conversation. Your correct, I overlooked the '22 and '23 slot at 17" and yes I'm sure high 90 percent were females.

As far as commercial discard rates are concerned, I shouldn't generalize but that chart wasn't made by me, it was made by NMFS from on board federal observers. Do I think they fudged the numbers, no because the commercial sector would retaliate and sue so instead they buried the chart from future stock assessments because it hurts the narrative they want. I haven't tried to state anything regarding commercial discards other than what a published chart showed.

And here's what I believe based on your comment regarding local operators versus out of state. Smaller local multi generational operators will protect their local resources and are more prone to play by the rules. Out of state operators with ten times the quota or capacity will rape the ocean clean and North Carolina, Chris Batsavage specifically, has publicly said he will not give up one lb. of quota to any state and they will take as much of another states local resources without hesitation. Maryland and Virginia have damaged this fishery more than any other states and the fact they have 50% of the quota for a fishery which isn't in there local waters is a travesty and failure of the agencies managing this stock but that's a whole different conversation. Quotas based on statistic from 40 or 50 years ago is insane. I believe most operators understand if there's no resources there's no quotas but I also believe there's too many that could care less and will take everything they can at any cost and move on to the next resource if there is one. If people are offended by that truth, they should find another business or do something about the bad apples that place a black eye on their trade.

Do you honestly believe, I mean honestly believe, I haven't known for quite some time there's a small, medium, large and jumbo size category in this fishery and the larger sizes typically fetch higher wholesale prices and prices fluctuate daily based on supply and demand. I've been saying that for years. And then there's the sushi market or I think what they refer to as the bled market which has it's own set of values which I also believe are at the high end price spectrum. So please don't say I didn't know that as it simply isn't true.

The last three paragraphs of your reply, I agree with 100%. Some common ground, good lord Dan my analysis was flawless and meticulously put together. I probably have 1,500 hours or more in building data tables and analyzing trends. No one that matters, to my knowledge, has ever said my findings are wrong. They simply won't acknowledge publicly that my conclusions might in fact be right. There's simply too much money and power involved in fisheries allocations and no one is going to break ranks and risk career suicide.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

NC. Closed their recreational season for 2024 , and last year it was only 2 weeks long

Is that for summer flounder or southern flounder?

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

As to your question , there isn’t 1 fishery that has been managed correctly .
One look at the limits of every fish we could catch here just 15 years ago , we can’t keep 1/3 of those limits today .

To see boats that used to catch boatloads of 15# bluefish daily , be happy to catch 2 pounders is sickening .

Sea bass are everywhere , can’t get away from them and they keep cutting those limits .

.only way fisheries management will ever happen correctly is if they do a clean sweep of everyone involved.

But it’s been well known for decades they would rather see us all stop fishing.
Goes back to catch share hearings with G Bush jr.

.and now with all the bullshit push for the wind turbines all over the oceans , they want you out there even less .
.
Put all the pieces together of why they hope every fishery dries up .

.

Again I agree with every point you've made. And if the fluke fishery continues being managed the way it is, it will fail. In my opinion, it's an absolute certainty. Have to go out and buy a lottery ticket There's still hope for both of us!

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

Again I agree with every point you've made. Have to go out and buy a lottery ticket There's still hope for both of us!

Let’s go catch some flatheads

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

Is that for summer flounder or southern flounder?

Southern