Sandy Hook

[Jigman13]

Originally Posted by Duffman

How do you determine that?

Historically, sept storm systems usually prompt fluke marching orders to start migrating offshore. Where they will inevitably end up in the nets of comm trawlers from all over the mid Atlantic.

[Duffman]

Originally Posted by Jigman13

Historically, sept storm systems usually prompt fluke marching orders to start migrating offshore. Where they will inevitably end up in the nets of comm trawlers from all over the mid Atlantic.

Yes I understand the Sept storms will send them packing.


I'm just curious to know if 2024 does go down as one of the worst fluke seasons on record, how is that determined? Is it a poundage landed thing? Or some other formula?

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by Jigman13

Historically, sept storm systems usually prompt fluke marching orders to start migrating offshore. Where they will inevitably end up in the nets of comm trawlers from all over the mid Atlantic.

Jeremy, exactly. Fish have been staging in deeper water and feeding for a few weeks. A low pressure system triggers when they head east and that's what we have the next 2-3 days. The migration traditionally isn't gradual, when it's go time it's a massive migration which is why the stock is so vulnerable to commercial netting over the next few months. These highly concentrated schools will be met by a gauntlet of commercial netters including the larger NC and VA boats and will be annihilated with a tremendous number of shorts we've been releasing all season killed. When I got involved in researching this stock, I became friends with a handful of federal on board observers and believe me when I say people have no idea the amount of waste that's involved in the commercial fishery. 42% reduction in the commercial quota this year spells major trouble for this fishery and the powers to be responsible for managing it leave all other regulations status quo. That doesn't suggest, it dictates, that the future of this stock will be impacted by the same challenges that have caused its current declines which is an incredible commentary on just how poorly this stock is being managed.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by Duffman

Yes I understand the Sept storms will send them packing.


I'm just curious to know if 2024 does go down as one of the worst fluke seasons on record, how is that determined? Is it a poundage landed thing? Or some other formula?

From my perspective, reports from people I know up and down the coast, personal time on the water, reports on this and other fishing sites and years of research understanding the changes which have taken place in the stock. As BB correctly noted in his response on this thread, a good party boat trip is 30 or 40 keepers which reflects the decline in the older age classes of the stock. Those numbers are brutal. That's not a knock on the Captains or Sponsors on this or any site, it's a sign of the condition of the stock. A 42% reduction in commercial quota for a sector which has received preferential treatment in regulations for decades means one thing, this stock is in dire trouble. And regulations which didn't work in 2021 causing those cuts are reimplemented. Help me understand the sense in that decision. Cutting quota is not the primary answer, it's part of the answer. Rebuilding the spawning stock, protecting the spawn to increase yearly recruitment levels and reducing commercial waste are the only things that will save this fishery or as I've been saying for years this will have the same ending as the winter flounder fishery for exactly the same reasons.

When we had a biomass significantly greater than today of proportionately younger age class fish (substantially lower concentration of risk), the regulations didn't mandate or incent the targeting of the spawning stock, we didn't have the build up in the offshore winter fishery we have today which is substantially greater, this fishery thrived year in year out. That's all changed and the regulations need to change to adopt to today's environment.

If anyone believes 2024 doesn't represent the worst fluke season in decades I'd be curious to hear your opinion and what you believe the future of this fishery will be in the absence of substantial changes in how it's currently being managed.

[Jigman13]

Anecdotally, the resources I've spoken with who spend substantial numbers of hours shore fishing fluke in the back bays, rivers and ocean beach fronts have all echoed comparable sentiments regarding the fluke fishing. Short city. Total lack of keepers. While I've spent less time fluking this year, I've only gotten 2 keepers and prob 200 shorts.

[Duffman]

OK, I just didn't know if this was hard numbers thing or a perception of what people have seen.

Personally, it wasn't a great year but it was by far not the worst by a long shot.

Another thing is, how many people are fishing now compared to years ago? AHMH is down to what? 3 boats? And they sail light from pics I've seen. Another reason catch numbers may be down.

Going by posted reports is meaningless IMO. I haven't posted a fluke report in a long time and also talk with many guys who no longer post and fish 3-4 days per week.

I'm not saying the fishery is in good health, just that its changed tremendously.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by Jigman13

Anecdotally, the resources I've spoken with who spend substantial numbers of hours shore fishing fluke in the back bays, rivers and ocean beach fronts have all echoed comparable sentiments regarding the fluke fishing. Short city. Total lack of keepers. While I've spent less time fluking this year, I've only gotten 2 keepers and prob 200 shorts.

Now add this to the equation. Science, right or wrong, estimates natural mortality (predation, sickness etc.) at 25% a year per age class. Of those two hundred fish Jigman caught, fifty presumably will die from natural predation this year. Now add in the number that will succumb to commercial and recreational discard mortality. For decades now the regulations have mandated killing off juvenile age classes while harvesting the prime breeding stock. That won't work and it isn't working. Let recreational anglers keep some smaller fish before they succumb to natural mortality, take the pressure off the 18" and larger fish and mandate commercial operators to keep what comes up in their nets until their daily quota is attained. Zero discards. And close the fishery to netting during the spawn. The population I'd bet would double in three years. Commercials will complain but is it better to share in a smaller percentage of a growing fishery with upside future benefits or have another winter flounder fishery on our hands and have the fishery closed down. 42% commercial quota cuts are systemic of a much bigger problem in this fishery than anyone's discussing or willing to address.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by Duffman

OK, I just didn't know if this was hard numbers thing or a perception of what people have seen.

Personally, it wasn't a great year but it was by far not the worst by a long shot.

Another thing is, how many people are fishing now compared to years ago? AHMH is down to what? 3 boats? And they sail light from pics I've seen. Another reason catch numbers may be down.

Going by posted reports is meaningless IMO. I haven't posted a fluke report in a long time and also talk with many guys who no longer post and fish 3-4 days per week.

I'm not saying the fishery is in good health, just that its changed tremendously.

Duff,

From me perception and perspective coupled with on water results. As I said, 42% quota cuts are indicative of a failing fishery. Are less people fishing because the fishery is in the tank or for other reasons. Personally spending a couple hundred dollars to maybe catch a keeper fluke isn't very motivating. That's not exactly why I fish but for many it is. The economics have become brutal with inflation and regulatory restrictions. Posted reports are just a piece of the picture but telling in my opinion. In 2018 we all said "Definition of insanity is doing the same thing all over again and expecting different results" and 6 or 7 years later management is doing just that.

Remember the boat "New Age" from Massachusetts which was just fined for harvesting 200,000 lbs. of illegal fluke. At 3 lbs. per fish, that's almost 67,000 fish illegally harvested by one commercial operator. I'd bet New Jersey recreational anglers including party and charter boat operators combined in 2024 didn't come close to harvesting that many fish.

I've said my piece so we'll see where the cards fall.

[Duffman]

It's a shame but fluke seem to be on the same course as weakfish, winter flounder and bluefish.

Besides the regs what other factors are involved? 20+ years ago catching a smooth dog in the Raritan or SH Bay was rare, at least for me. Searobins and Skates paved the bottom along with fluke. I don't think i caught 5-6 searobins both bay or oceanside all season. But doggies? Forget about it!!!! Like fleas!

Enviromental changes playing a big part too.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by Duffman

It's a shame but fluke seem to be on the same course as weakfish, winter flounder and bluefish.

Besides the regs what other factors are involved? 20+ years ago catching a smooth dog in the Raritan or SH Bay was rare, at least for me. Searobins and Skates paved the bottom along with fluke. I don't think i caught 5-6 searobins both bay or oceanside all season. But doggies? Forget about it!!!! Like fleas!

Enviromental changes playing a big part too.

Duffman,

I think fluke are on a much more accelerated course because of the nature of the fishery commercially. It's one of the few year round fisheries for commercial operators within access to all coastal ports. Winter flounder as we knew it were essentially wiped out in a few short years when the fluke stock crashed in the late 80's. With today's demand and technology, it's going to happen quickly with fluke and as I've been saying we're already experiencing that decline. Dogfish are like cormorants, they'll eat anything they can get their mouths on in massive quantities. Environment impacts everything but I don't believe it's impacting this stock nearly as much as the regulations and relentless pounding year round the stock is being subjected to. No stock can survive that and fluke won't either. It's a mathematical impossibility.

Remove one fish from the food chain and the entire food chain becomes unbalanced. Look at pics of commercial netting and see how many skates and sea robins are killed as bycatch. Bluefish and weakfish were overharvested, with weakfish the big tide runner breeders we're destroyed combined with the fall gill netters and that ended that fishery. Waste both recreationally and commercially which the regulations turned a blind eye to killed each of the fisheries you mentioned. Same is happening with fluke. Cut an annual quota by almost 50% but leave the regulations essentially the same, does it really get any more insane than that? Management is trying to protect catch values of commercial interests, grow the economic benefits and revenues generated from both the commercial and recreational sector while completely ignoring what matters most which is the stability and health of the stock. I have nothing against commercial operators carving a living from the oceans resources, as a matter of fact I'm all for it. But it can't come at the expense of those resources and the public's right to harvest those same resources any more than recreational access can come at the commercial sectors expense. Fair and equitable distribution, Magnuson Stevens Act states it very clearly, it's just ignored.

I pray I'm wrong, I don't believe I am. I've been researching this stock for seven years now and it's in trouble with nothing on the horizon to address the root cause of the problems causing it's decline.