Where the heck are the Fluke?

[Capt John]

According to my records of the past 15 years, Father's Day was always the start of some active (shorts and many keepers) Fluke, but this year, so far has been really tough. PB's and charters going after Ling, Whiting and Sea Bass....what the hell is going on here?

Curious to hear your thoughts on this. Are they still east of us? Cold water? Buried in the mud/sand? Moved north? Already at Fulton? What gives?

Slim pickin's to say the least. Care to weigh in?

[bulletbob]

The sea Bass boats are getting quite a few whiting, lots of Ling, and even a few Cod inshore in about 50-60 FOW, each report I see here... In all my years i can't recall good fluke fishing at the same time whiting were being caught inshore.. My vote is that the water is still cold.. That and a buck will get you 3/4 of a cup of gas station coffee.... bob

[reason162]

According to best avail science, the main body of fluke are shifting north due to climate change, along with BSB and everything else. I'm sure that's a controversial statement to many here...but it shouldn't be. It certainly fits what we're seeing.

But perhaps some southern species will take its place. Personally, I'm ready for some red drum in RB.

[bulletbob]

Originally Posted by reason162

According to best avail science, the main body of fluke are shifting north due to climate change, along with BSB and everything else. I'm sure that's a controversial statement to many here...but it shouldn't be. It certainly fits what we're seeing.

But perhaps some southern species will take its place. Personally, I'm ready for some red drum in RB.

Yeah, I don't buy that for a second. They simply don't show up some years, and its been that way since I was a kid. can't begin to say why that might be.. I remember lots of years back in the 60's and 70's where there were very few fluke... bob

[reason162]

Originally Posted by bulletbob

Yeah, I don't buy that for a second.

Bob, the scientists who sift through mountains of historical data, along with current catch data and tagging studies etc see a connection between rising temps and northward migrations...if that's true, it's true whether you buy it or not lol.

If you reject scientific conclusions out of hand, many things become mysterious. In this case, the disappearance of fluke from our local waters.

[Billfish715]

There might be lots of ideas about it all. A change to long-term summer weather will help put patrons at the rails despite the poor fishing. Good weather always brings people to the saltwater. A chance to catch fish can only help, even if they are shorts.

Rain, rain, rain........freshwater influx is my theory. Fluke can live and migrate in cold water. I don't give the water temperature excuse too much weight. Bait? There are sandeels not far from the beaches. Reports are coming in about fluke in the surf. There just hasn't been a large push of fluke from offshore as of yet. Just like they disappear suddenly in early September, I am guessing, they will appear suddenly, only later. Appear they will. In the meantime, we wait........or fish in the river.

In any case, if the season gets cut next year or if the size limits are increased, expect a class action lawsuit.

[Billfish715]

The tagging studies and scientific studies do show that fluke are migrating north toward Montauk, Block Island, Nantucket etc. Those fish, though are fish that spent a year or two in the N.Y. Bight or off the coast of NJ. As the fluke age and take on size, they are moving north of us. My tag returns have come from fluke that I tagged the previous year and were recaptured in places like Barnegate Bay and the Manasquan River and Brick Beach to name a few. To me, that means fish are returning to places near where they were caught.

Do more fluke move north from south Jersey to the N.Y. area? Absolutely! Many folks would like to pin the reasons for a decline in the fishery to a single occurrence. To say that the fluke are moving out because of a change in the climate is very short sighted, but it's an easily understood and acceptible excuse to the casually informed public. It's also a very popular rationalization that does not mention other environmental and biological theories.

Let's talk about this again in a month or two. If the fluke don't show up in any numbers by then, we'll start pointing fingers at lots of factors but most of them will point toward the scientists who are generating (or not generating) catch limits on offshore spawners.

[Billfish715]

Hey John, How long of a ride is it from your dock to Montauk? Check out the Miss Montauk II post on this board. The pictures speak volumes about where the fluke are now.

[fish4fun]

There must be fluke around because yesterday I saw tons of it at my local seafood store. So what's
the problem?

[RescueDogger]

If the climate change theory is true then maybe we'll start seeing some cobia.
Such a fighter and great eating -- I was ill prepared for the mahem that began once we finally got him in the boat. My son ended up beating him with the anchor and I'm lucky we didn't ding the fiberglass.