Fluke Regs this year

Originally Posted by Detour66

3@ 16.5"....2 @ 18"- 21" ... 1 trophy fish with tag! (21" +)

Don't mean to stir the pot here but I think it's important for us all to understand what's happening. I know I'm a broken record on this topic but it's important enough to me and should be to everyone including the many business owners associated with the fishery so I'll accept that risk.

Two years ago, Dan (hammer4reel) and I, attended the public meeting in south NJ along with a hundred or so other people, a few from this site. Based on data included in the ASMFC Draft Addendum XXVlll handout, specifically the two attached charts addressing Recruitment (egg reproduction) and Catch (2nd and 3rd charts), I put together a data table to analyze trends over the last 20 - 30 years. A portion of that data table is reflected in the first chart which includes Recruitment, Total Catch (recreational and commercial combined), Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) and Recreational Size Limits.

Years covered are 1982 thru 2015. Numbers are rounded but representative of the data NMFS and ASMFC are basing their regulatory decisions on. The recruitment numbers are in thousands so for example in 1982, 61,000 is actually 61,000,000. PLEASE review the trends for each category in the first chart and it tells the entire story. Compare 1982 to 2015 individual years if you want the Reader's Digest version of whats happened. Egg reproduction was approximately 61,000,000 in '82 vs approximately 23,000,000 in '15. Catch 25,000 metric tons in '82 vs. 7,500 in '15. SSB (biomass) 24,000 metric tons in '82 vs. 36,250 in '15, an almost 50% increase. Also note the biomass was as high as 50,000 metric tons in 2002 and has been decreasing ever since. Size limit '82, there wasn't one compared to 18" in '15. Since NY/NJ combined harvest makes up about 85% of the annual fluke harvest, I used the weighted average of just those two states to arrive at average regulatory size limits each year.

The most significant relationship in the analysis which should be the primary focus of NMFS and ASMFC is egg reproduction decreasing from 61 million to 23 million from '82 to '15 while the biomass increased from 24,000 metric tons to 36,250 metric tons. Keep in mind again it reached a high of 50,000 metric tons in 2002. While the biomass exploded upward, egg reproduction fell off the cliff. That's a relational statistic that should jump out at everyone and be the single most important issue fisheries management is focused on. In reality, it doesn't appear to even be on their radar screen. You'll notice egg reproduction started tanking when size limits approached 17", the cross over point in Rutgers "Size and Sex Study" when 90% - 95% of all fluke at or over that size are females. Coincidence, not a chance.

Reason I bring this up is based on the two options Detour66 posted. In my opinion, there's really only one option, 3 @ 16.5". Option 2, 2 @18"-21" and a special bonus tag for one over 21" will only intensify the pressure on female fluke and kill Party and Charter boat businesses. NMFS and ASMFC have their heads in the sand if these are truly the options they're considering. Any option which doesn't address the decline in egg reproduction shouldn't even be considered. AND until commercial harvest during the spawn is addressed, the current state of the fishery won't improve. I'm not suggesting commercial quotas be cut, they should be reallocated to times of the year that won't coincide with and disrupt the spawn. For a fishery supposedly spiraling downward as much as this one to allow commercial harvest during the primary spawn without understanding the consequences on egg reproduction which is off approximately 75% - 80% from historical highs is inexplicable and essentially gross negligence by NMFS and ASMFC.