Ssfff To Challenge Mrfss Landings Data

[dales529]

Originally Posted by Kensdock

Tony, I remember 1.4 million NJ anglers that is why I use that number. I used 10% of anglers catching 100 keeper flounder because that is the number of keepers I caught and posted on my blog. Some people that post on fishing sites and clubs caught more some caught less. I would have caught more if I followed the flounder into the Ocean during Juily and August. I just had my fill of flounder by that time.

You are entitled to your opinion. Having said that your quote is almost a THANK YOU because this is EXACTLY the issue SSFFF and RFA are fighting against:

YOU STATE:
Maybe 1.4million anglers as that is the last thing I remember (maybe , maybe not)
Using 10% of anglers because YOU ALONE caught X amt Keepers (maybe u did , maybe u didnt)
I would have caught more IF I followed the flounder into the ocean.
(yes, I myself would have caught more if I fished more, didnt ever go to work, didnt visit my kids at college, went flounder fishing instead of bass fishing, didnt sleep late, didnt eat fried foods, didnt smoke, got more exercise,etc etc)


Are you kidding? This another example of the "FLAWED" Data that is the rule NOT the exception. Who I ask is OUT OF TOUCH?

WTF is this nonsense at a time when UNITY, FACTS and SCIENCE are so Important.

[Kensdock]

Originally Posted by dales529

You are entitled to your opinion. Having said that your quote is almost a THANK YOU because this is EXACTLY the issue SSFFF and RFA are fighting against:

YOU STATE:
Maybe 1.4million anglers as that is the last thing I remember (maybe , maybe not)
Using 10% of anglers because YOU ALONE caught X amt Keepers (maybe u did , maybe u didnt)
I would have caught more IF I followed the flounder into the ocean.
(yes, I myself would have caught more if I fished more, didnt ever go to work, didnt visit my kids at college, went flounder fishing instead of bass fishing, didnt sleep late, didnt eat fried foods, didnt smoke, got more exercise,etc etc)


Are you kidding? This another example of the "FLAWED" Data that is the rule NOT the exception. Who I ask is OUT OF TOUCH?

WTF is this nonsense at a time when UNITY, FACTS and SCIENCE are so Important.

Not maybe did I catch a 100 keepers, I did catch a 100 keepers and documented them, all of them with pictures on my blog. Check for yourself. The 1.4 million NJ angler estimate was from a federal government survey that I read . I did not see the`1.2 million estimate that Tony quoted. !0% of anglers catching 100 keeper flounder during the 2009 season is a conservative estimate from my experience and research. Using this information how many pounds of flounder did 10% of NJ anglers catch?

Maybe it is good news? Maybe it is not? I can assure you of one thing it is good information!!

[1captainron]

Why even entertain this BS..........Tony, I'm suprised you even go here with all the crap on your plate.
Pissing contests do none of us any good. If you caught 100 keeper Fluke at 18 inches, great, you are a better fishermen than 95% of the people fishing in NJ and reading these reports.
Kudos for your talent and right to brag about it. I only wish I could carry customers that could catch keepers like that, my pics and reports would pack my boat....Capt.Ron

[Reelron]

Capt. Ron, maybe you can hire him to be your PR man? He does seem to be very creative with numbers.

[CaptTB]

Originally Posted by Kensdock

The 1.4 million NJ angler estimate was from a federal government survey that I read . I did not see the`1.2 million estimate that Tony quoted.

And apparently you decided to never look anything else up again. As I said, the number you quote was from one year of MRFSS estimates, specifically the year 2007. Go to the MRFSS website and look it up for yourself, it is public information.

10% of anglers catching 100 keeper flounder during the 2009 season is a conservative estimate from my experience and research.

And exactly what research did you do to come up with that estimate?

Using this information how many pounds of flounder did 10% of NJ anglers catch?

Putting aside for the moment that your estimate flies in the face of every piece of data ever collected as relates to CPUE (that's Catch Per Unit Effort) for Fluke fishing on the eastern seaboard, if 10% of the 1.4 million anglers you mention caught 250lbs. of Fluke in a single year, that would mean that 140,000 anglers in the state of NJ KEPT 35,000,000 (that's 35 MILLION) pounds of Fluke, (140,000*250) or nearly 1/4 the entire Fluke biomass in the ocean. If you take the federal gov't average of less than 2 keeper Fluke per person, per trip (it's somewhere around 95-97% of fluke anglers catch less than 2...I'll put the exact #'s up later, gotta get the stuff from my office) that would mean the AVERAGE angler makes nearly 60 fluke trips a year. 100 fish at less than 2 keepers per trip =50+ trips.

When you add in the throw back rate (around 9 to 1 according to gov't numbers) you can estimate that just in the state of NJ alone those 140,000 anglers would have made approx. 7 Million Fluke trips (140,000*50 trips each) catching roughly 125+ MILLION fish (9to1 throwback to keeper times 2 = 18 fish caught times 7,000,000 trips), or somewhere around the entire biomass currently estimated to exist in the entire ocean(125+million fish at only 1.5lbs. you get 187+million pounds, or more than the current estimates of the total Fluke biomass in the Atlantic Ocean, and that's 1 full pound LESS than your average keeper weight you used)

So, according to your "experience and research" NJ catches and releases the entire biomass of Fluke in the entire ocean in a single year, plus we keep nearly 1 1/2 times the quota allocated to the entire coast, both commercial and recreational combined.(which this year is in the low 20 million pound range)

I can assure you of one thing it is good information!!

I'm sure you believe it is, and I have this really nice bridge for sale, dirt cheap!


Any questions?

[Kensdock]

The 100 keepers I caught is a solid documented number. The 1.4 million angler number is an estimate, as you know be the MRFSS. My estimate of 10% of anglers catching a 100 keepers was determined via Cape May co. flounder fishermen that record their catch on blogs, fishing websites or old fashioned log books. The MRFSS maybe off with their estimate of NJ fishermen. It is possible that the % of flounder fishermen that catch 100 keeper flounder a season may change as you head up the beach. Even under super conservative angler numbers, I say we over fished the flounder quota for the 2009 season.

[CaptTB]

Originally Posted by Kensdock

The 100 keepers I caught is a solid documented number.

Which I never questioned.

My estimate of 10% of anglers catching a 100 keepers was determined via Cape May co. flounder fishermen that record their catch on blogs, fishing websites or old fashioned log books.

OK, so how does that reflect the other 99.9% of the state and anglers? If you are working with a 10% figure, did you check the "blogs" of even a fraction of 1% of 140,000 anglers? Did you do a statistical survey spread across the state, regions, fishing types, etc?

No, of course you did not and even said as much.

Even under super conservative angler numbers, I say we over fished the flounder quota for the 2009 season.

Which of course, is your opinion to which are certainly entitled, but then again it is not based on anything even remotely resembling "data" or something acquired through "research."

So let's be conservative Ken and cut your estimate in half and use the 2008 angler numbers of 1.2million since it is more recent than the 1.4 million estimate. 5% of 1.2 million anglers anglers catching 125lbs. each. Guess what? You'd get 7.5 million pounds of fish. That's extremely conservative according to your numbers, yet it would still equal a number greater than the landings of Fluke on THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD. As a matter of fact, it is even greater than the recreational quota for the entire eastern seaboard. It is also (at 2.5lbs each) a number THREE TIMES that estimated for the ENTIRE NEW JERSEY LANDINGS in numbers of fish, and nearly one and a half times the estimate for numbers of fish landed for the ENTIRE COAST.

Forget all the throw backs that would be associated with that number not to mention the landings by the other 95% of the anglers from NJ and I think the point is clear.

Your "estimates" are laughable to say the least, and your opinion of what quota was or was not exceeded is based on nothing other than your opinion, with zero facts to support your conclusions.

By the way, you do know that your assertion that the quota was exceeded is not what is being claimed right? The quota was NOT exceeded this year, so you now claim to know more than fishermen and the government based on Cape May fishermen's blogs and websites?

I'm sorry Ken, but please go waste someone else's time with your ridiculous assertions, I have more important things to do.

How can you look at how ridiculously outrageous your numbers are and STILL cling to your delusions?

I guess the saying "ignorance is bliss" is true.

[Life's A Beach]

Originally Posted by Kensdock

The 100 keepers I caught is a solid documented number. The 1.4 million angler number is an estimate, as you know be the MRFSS. My estimate of 10% of anglers catching a 100 keepers was determined via Cape May co. flounder fishermen that record their catch on blogs, fishing websites or old fashioned log books. The MRFSS maybe off with their estimate of NJ fishermen. It is possible that the % of flounder fishermen that catch 100 keeper flounder a season may change as you head up the beach. Even under super conservative angler numbers, I say we over fished the flounder quota for the 2009 season.

you're clueless. the ONLY real number in your equation is the number of fish you CLAIM you can prove you caught. Every single other number was pulled from a hat. Then you end in conclusion that WE overfished OUR quota??? Numbers like YOURS is why SSFFF is fighting an uphill battle against BAD SCIENCE/NUMBERS.

I fished for fluke often. From opening day through the end of the season. I caught a lot of fluke. I caught many quality fluke. I did NOT catch 100 fluke! That would be 16.5 days of full limits. I don't know many people that did.

Please do us a favor. Go fishing, catch your fish, post them in your personal blog and stop trying to be the voice of reason unless/until you engage your mind before you open your mouth. It's not helping us.

[Kensdock]

I am sorry you were unable to assimilate the information or my point. At a later date I am sure you will catch on.

[Capt. Jerry P]

Your the best fluke fisherman in new jersey

but

Give it a break

ask the party boats how many keepers the avg tourist took home a trip?

10% of anglers caught 100 keepers.... maybe on the moon

must been great down in Cape May

fluke regs are a broken system period and have been for along time...thanks to those who are fighting to prove it!