Nws?

[Capt Joe]

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtb.../an/anz450.txt

BULLSH** !

[shrimpman steve]

What am I missing

[Captain Rich]

Originally Posted by shrimpman steve

What am I missing

swell with 12-14 second period and 5 knot winds doesn't warrant an small craft advisory.

[bigal427]

Their forecast sucks any more. Have you noticed they always call for a SE swell. They call for 15 to 20 knot winds and still a SE swell. I emailed the and wanted to know what was up with the constant forecast of SE swells. Still no reply

[Capt. Debbie]

REALLY!!

5 knot winds and 14 second 3-5' swell periodss are Small Craft Advisory conditions huh? For what.... those traveling in thimbles? LOL

[MrAC1980]

^LOL! Wunderground has the same thing. This is why I rely upon bouyweather mostly. Has yet to let me down.

[shrimpman steve]

Originally Posted by Captain Rich Adler

swell with 12-14 second period and 5 knot winds doesn't warrant an small craft advisory.

I see your point and agree wholeheartedly.

[Captain Rich]

Originally Posted by shrimpman steve

I see your point and agree wholeheartedly.

Thanks, the only risk I can think of might be a 5 foot swell up against the height of an outgoing tide at a narrow inlet, causing the water to stack up pretty good, might make going in or out a little tough

[wdrag]

Hello to everyone who commented on this thread and to those who might have and didn't.

I'll answer the thread questions-comments, and also at the end give you a link that I think you'll find easy to use to send in your observation and comments. I want you to use that link! It can help us improve our forecast.

I'm off duty until next Tuesday and may not see your comments for a couple of days.


The National Weather Service intent is to protect life and property
and facilitate commerce for everyone.

Quickly on swell: Our forecast is based on end of fetch winds... therefore
if there is a westerly wind... the forecast is most accurate 25 miles east of the shore (outer edge of our forecast). There... the predominant swell can easily be east, southeast, south, even though the shorter period wind wave chop atop the swell is westerly. For easterly flow... the predominant wave forecast, again at the end of the fetch is only within a mile or 2 of the shore.

Once in a while in winter the swell shifts to west or northwest as strong gradient winds dominate the wave groups. Otherwise, the predominant swell will generally be onshore.

We offer the swell and period information as potentially helpful to at least a few users. The model guidance is accurate and we offer it only 48 hours in advance to limit broadcast cycle length. It is also the basis of rip current forecast.

Now below on advisories:


Our overall NWS baseline guidelines for a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) are a 5 foot sea (Hazardous Seas) or frequent gusts 23 kt or greater (SCA).

We currently have virtually no wind wave data on the waters, due in part to buoy equipment outages 44065 and 44025 completely out of service and 44009 with no wind data, only swell data. Those buoys will be restored to full service the week of September 15, or thereabouts (provided no Hurricane).

We do have Bethany De swell data (Army Corp of Engineers), and a host of valuable Weather Flow and other mesonet data along the waters edge. Soon that Weather Flow data will be broadcasting on NOAA Weather Radio.
We also receive data from the Cape May Lewes Ferry group but less frequently than the observations listed above.

In any case, the overall accurate model guidance that we receive is not confidently adjusted , when there is a lack of real time over water data. Thats where you can help us (see link at the end)!

Tuesday-Agusut 5, seas were predominantly 3-4 feet, with a time of swells of 5 to 6 feet reaching at least the De coast during mid afternoon on the
5th (Bethany buoy data).

While the long period 5 ft swell may not affect commercial fishermen,
it could have an adverse impact on the less skilled and/or smaller
vessels, for which we also have a responsibility to safeguard with
advisories etc.

My own yearly charter fishing days with a group off Newburyport Massachusetts (cod and haddock 5 to 15 miles offshore in 150-250 ft of Gulf of Maine water) , found a small percentage of novice fishermen getting seasick with 4 and 5 foot swells. The Captains and mates were fine!

That said, while the buoy wave heights that you do hear-read of, may be
predominately be such and such, there can be a couple of wave groups
per hour, notably higher. The inlet tide impacts with the swells are
another factor.

These situations of 5 swell and light wind seldom occur.


We are continuing the forecast and verifying criteria for small craft
advisories as is, in overall interest of safety for all marine traffic.


HOWEVER.... since there is Internet use on this chat... and if you
have Internet capability on the water, you have opportunity to send
us your observation through this link recently added (smart phone,
laptop). Your real time information can be of value to fine tune our
forecast, advisories and warnings. Once you send the info, it
arrives almost instantly in the office.

Here is the link,

http://www.weather.gov/phi/marobsform


Thank you very much for helping us improve the forecast and your
understanding of our overall marine mission,


Walter Drag
Off duty National Weather Service Mount Holly Marine Focal Point
August 7, 2014