NOAA admits overcounting rec catches

[pectoralfin]

I found this on another site. Interesting read.

https://www.outdoorlife.com/uploads/...l-w-Review.pdf

Here's the meat of the report buried in pages of BS.Conclusions

Results from these studies suggest that the predominant form of measurement error in the FES is telescoping error; respondents were more likely to report trips from outside the intended reference period than omit trips. The current FES questionnaire design includes bounding questions (12-month shore and boat fishing) that are likely to reduce telescoping error in the FES relative to an unbounded design. However, the question sequence may not be optimal in terms of reducing telescoping error - respondents are unlikely to review the entire questionnaire, including the bounding questions, prior to reporting for the desired reference period. Consequently, the current design is likely overestimating fishing effort. A revised design that presents the 12-month fishing questions before the two-month questions would likely further reduce bias resulting from telescoping error.

They are saying ITS NOT US ITS THEM. They designed the questionnaires. They administered it. They interrupted the results. They projected catch limits. They refused to listen to ANY debate.
The errors go past past malfeasance and dereliction of duty. I'm on record raving about NOAA stealing over 80 metric tons of BFT from recs for over 15 years. They pretended 'It was an error'.

Now they admit they are over counting rec catches. SO all you Florida red snapper, grouper, etc fishermen with small bag limits and closed seasons? THEY ARE LYING on purpose. If you read this report cover to cover you'll see how they are trying to hide behind words. It's FRAUD plain and simple.
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[Detour66]

This is the second time the NOAA travesty has been mentioned here on this site. I would think finally the information is here to help the recreational fisherman. What is the next step? How can things be changed in our favor now that they have admitted they have over estimated what the recs have caught? This is the opportunity we have been waiting for? Somebody or one of the many pro fishing organization that people pay dues for has to step up and seize the moment!

[Capt Sal]

Originally Posted by pectoralfin

I found this on another site. Interesting read.

https://www.outdoorlife.com/uploads/...l-w-Review.pdf

Here's the meat of the report buried in pages of BS.Conclusions

Results from these studies suggest that the predominant form of measurement error in the FES is telescoping error; respondents were more likely to report trips from outside the intended reference period than omit trips. The current FES questionnaire design includes bounding questions (12-month shore and boat fishing) that are likely to reduce telescoping error in the FES relative to an unbounded design. However, the question sequence may not be optimal in terms of reducing telescoping error - respondents are unlikely to review the entire questionnaire, including the bounding questions, prior to reporting for the desired reference period. Consequently, the current design is likely overestimating fishing effort. A revised design that presents the 12-month fishing questions before the two-month questions would likely further reduce bias resulting from telescoping error.

They are saying ITS NOT US ITS THEM. They designed the questionnaires. They administered it. They interrupted the results. They projected catch limits. They refused to listen to ANY debate.
The errors go past past malfeasance and dereliction of duty. I'm on record raving about NOAA stealing over 80 metric tons of BFT from recs for over 15 years. They pretended 'It was an error'.

Now they admit they are over counting rec catches. SO all you Florida red snapper, grouper, etc fishermen with small bag limits and closed seasons? THEY ARE LYING on purpose. If you read this report cover to cover you'll see how they are trying to hide behind words. It's FRAUD plain and simple.
____

Because the counters went to High School in Baltimore!

[Broad Bill]

Detour,

Your post is too logical. I'd bet NMFS will find a way to deflect this entire situation. Case in point, remember I believe it was 2017 through 2018 time frame the commercial sector received a 100% increase in their quota as Allowable Biological Catch "ABC" was liberalized. Recreational possession limits and size minimums remained the same and the explanation was the recreational sector DID in fact receive an increase but MRIP catch number were retroactively restated at much higher levels offsetting the benefit of liberalization to the recreational sector only. The same MRIP statistics they're now saying are grossly overstated and misrepresentative. Smoke and mirrors, the recs on a net basis retained status quo regulations while the commercial sector experienced a 100% increase in quota. Let that settle in for a minute as it's beyond comprehension.

Some how, some way the same will happen here is my bet. It wouldn't surprise me since they are now saying we underfished quota for years, those surplus quotas should have been used to increase subsequent year recreational quotas and if NMFS does that, they'll also have to increase the commercial quota again to keep the pro rata allocation factor of ABC between the commercial and recreational sector in tact meaning commercial quotas will probably have to be increased as well. Wouldn't surprise me to see NMFS come back and increase recreational discard mortality rates to offset the benefits on inaccurate catch statistics, retain status quo again for the recreational sector and watch commercial quotas increase.

Or NMFS will come back and increase daily possession limits but increase size minimums to neutralize the impacts of their mistakes so the recreational sector continues spending massive amounts of money but harvest less fish. And then an even higher discard mortality rate will be assigned the sector for future years due to the effect increased discards associated with higher size minimums has on sector mortality rates.

They have every number of ways to distort the facts and control harvest. One thing I know for sure is NMFS will never admit they were wrong or change their perspectives on how this fishery is being managed.

[Detour66]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

Detour,

Your post is too logical.
They have every number of ways to distort the facts and control harvest. One thing I know for sure is NMFS will never admit they were wrong or change their perspectives on how this fishery is being managed.

Bill, You know way way more about this than I do. So everybody should just give up? So what about all the pro- recreational clubs and organizations. Should they just lay down and do nothing? What are they charging yearly dues for? I feel your frustration about this cause. I feel the same way too about the way our government screws the recreational fisherman. But for NOAA to admit this it seems like finally some data for those on the front lines of this fight to work with.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by Detour66

Bill, You know way way more about this than I do. So everybody should just give up? So what about all the pro- recreational clubs and organizations. Should they just lay down and do nothing? What are they charging yearly dues for? I feel your frustration about this cause. I feel the same way too about the way our government screws the recreational fisherman. But for NOAA to admit this it seems like finally some data for those on the front lines of this fight to work with.

Detour no we shouldn't just give up....ever. You're points are valid and I didn't intend to minimize them. If I did, my apologies. Like many others, I'm disgusted with a fishery and the management of that fishery as a whole, specifically for New Jersey, which went from unlimited to 10 to 8 to 6 to 5 and finally to a 3 fish possession limit in a little over two decades and from year round open seasons to substantially shorter seasons while commercial catch values have increased over the same timeframe. All so the recreational community can subsidize catch values of the commercial sector by increasing our size minimums so commercial concerns can benefits from significantly greater market values of larger specimens while killing multiple millions of juvenile fish in the process. This is the philosophy of the brain trust managing the stock.

Should we contribute to sport fishing groups we believe will make a difference, absolutely. As a matter of fact, I personally believe these groups need our support now more than ever.

My intention was to manage expectations because truthfully I can't remember the last time the recreational sector received an upside surprise when regulations were announced. That combined with the attached graph and summary article from the recent August 2023 MAFMC meeting published on their website at the below link leaves me again with very guarded optimism.

https://www.mafmc.org/newsfeed/2023/...eeting-summary

42% decrease in summer flounder quota is the option of choice for 2024 - 2025 by MAFMC based on catch statistics being overstated by as much as 30% - 40%. 10.62 million lbs. reduced to 6.35 million, try wrapping your head around that logic. And once again, recruitment is low for unknown reasons when we've been wiping out the spawning class of this stock for over a decade because of asinine, reprehensible and irresponsible regulations. Maybe something will change between now and 2024 but history certainly doesn't support that happening.