[Broad Bill]

Don’t want to cannibalize other threads so starting a new one about the state of the fluke fishery from my perspective based on reports, time on the water, and research I’ve done for almost 10 years now. South winds, regulations, cold water, harvesting the breeding stock, impact of commercial fishing, no protection for the spawn, year round commercial pressure, advancements in commercial fishing technology, substantial build-up of the offshore winter commercial fleet especially from southern states like North Carolina and Virginia, increases in wholesale prices for larger fish, regulations mandating the harvest of larger sexually mature age groups or the mega breeders of the stock, bias by regulatory agencies favoring the commercial sector and insane amounts of commercial discard mortality etc. are all factoring into the decline of this fishery.

As many have said in prior posts, we’ve had south winds forever. The frequency of south winds is what’s changed this year but the Jersey Shore and south winds have always gone hand in hand and it no doubt effects the bite. Years ago, they usually came up in the afternoon coinciding with rising air temperatures throughout the day. This year they seem to be an all-day occurrence and for weeks on end. I remember years ago fishing the Long Branch pier when we’d be hammering fluke of all sizes every cast. If the wind shifted to the south, the bite stopped immediately as if someone hit a switch. The impact can be that extreme and happen that quickly. I’ve seen it too many times to believe it’s a coincidence. BUT with that said, if shorts are feeding, larger specimens should be as well. The problem we’re seeing is the older age class groups of this stock have been pounded far too long, regulations have caused that portion of the biomass to materially decline and there’s no stock that can sustain itself under those conditions as recruitment levels are destroyed which is what we’ve seen over at minimum the last decade.

Fish are still being caught. Problem is with continued emphasis on harvesting 18” and larger fish both commercially and recreationally, the stock has gone through a transformation of age groups and gender composition. On water studies support both and aren’t disputable. The biomass overall has declined otherwise we wouldn’t have seen a decrease in commercial quotas this year from 15.5 million lbs. in 2023 to 8.8 million lbs. in 2024 or a 43% decrease. Half that commercial quota is allocated to Virginia (1.8 million lbs.) and North Carolina (2.4 million lbs.) who harvest almost exclusively during the fall / winter months off our coast. That decrease in commercial quota alone should concern everyone as that sector has always received preferential treatment in the management of this stock so if they’re taking that degree of a haircut from NMFS, what does that tell us about the overall health of the fishery. When conditions are more favorable, you’ll see fish caught but the biomass isn’t there anymore. That’s a leading indicator a fishery is in decline and coupled with the fact the larger age groups are disappearing from the stock for multiple reasons, this stock has a limited and bleak future.

We can talk about the impacts a slot, size slot, the fact the last two year NJ had a ridiculously thin 17” - 18” slot, which by the way tremendously helped party and for hire vessels, may have led to the elimination of an age group but I don’t agree with that theory. As far as I know, NJ is the only state that implemented a slot. NJ has approximately 23% of the recreational quota and if we think the NJ slot based on those numbers killed an entire age group, I disagree that two years for one state with a slot and a 20% portion of the recreational quota would have that dramatic an impact. At the same time, if you adhere to that theory, you'd have to agree for the same reason that harvesting 18" plus fish since 2008 due to size minimum regulations has had the same impact on the mega breeders of the stock.

Look at the below chart (first graph) which I’ve posted here before. Black bars are on board federal observer percentages of commercial discard to landings, even though it says catch. Blue bars are percentages from operator’s VTR (Vessel Trip Reports) to landings which operators are required to provide every trip on an honor system basis. They can put any percentage on the VTR they wish and its completely unsubstantiated. Chart was from the 57th stock assessment and removed from every stock assessment since because of the picture it paints about the waste commercial netting causes in this fishery. In 2006, 2007 and 2008, dead discard was reported by independent observers at 85%, 145% and 95% of landings. Commercial landings (in lbs.) for those years were 13.9 million, 10 million and 9.2 million. That means for those three years alone if NMFS used their own observers discard percentage statistics for dead discard mortality as opposed to arbitrary VTR percentages from commercial operators which you know are intentionally understated, the commercial sector killed 11.8 million, 14.5 million and 8.75 million pounds of less desirable fish or 35 million pounds in total to harvest 33 million pounds. More than 100% discard mortality in the harvest of their allowable quota. If the fish discarded averaged 1.5 pounds, the future of the fishery, in three years the commercial sector killed 23 million fish in the process of harvesting 33 million pounds of higher value fish!

Notice how the range changes between blue and black bars in 2000. Why? Because when size minimums started being used in the recreational sector to handicap recreational harvest and ultimately push 14” to 18” fish to the exclusive harvest of the commercial sector, commercial operators started harvesting those larger more valuable fish and killing the younger age classes caught in their nets. It’s called “selective harvest” and it will always result in substantially higher discard rates and waste in any fishery.

A table I created from stock assessment data (second graph) used to set and manage quotas is attached depicting weight assignments of fish. Most people never get to this level of understanding exactly how the recreational sector is being screwed and the fishery itself is being mismanaged. The table shows unexplained weight disparities of fish caught commercially versus the same age class weights assigned to fish caught recreationally. There's two parts of the analysis, for some reason NMFS assigns different weight values to fish harvested commercially from Maine to Virginia than they do for fish harvested by North Carolina. What makes this disparity even more ridiculous is North Carolina is harvesting almost 100% of their fish from our local waters and weights should be identical to recreational. We’re all fishing essentially the same body of fish at this point other than maybe commercials operating from Gloucester and points north. There’s a 40% to 60% discrepancy in the weights assigned to identical age classes between sectors. If you consider the overall annual quota is allocated 60/40 in favor of the commercial sector along with the fact assigned weight values range between 40% to 60% lower for the commercial fishery for identical age class fish, the commercial fishery is actually getting closer to a 75% allocation of every year’s overall quota versus 25% for the recreational sector. Now add the above discard percentages associated with commercial netting, no closed season during the spawn and NMFS or the NEFSC having no idea what the impact is of commercial netting during the spawn on recruitment coupled with the year round pounding of the stock commercially and the problem this fishery is facing is obvious. The stock is in a freefall and it won’t rebound unless there’s a complete overhaul in how it’s being managed which won’t happen until it’s too late. Anyone expecting this to reverse trend next year because we don’t have a slot in New Jersey this year I think will be very disappointed. And when the commercial fleet does the same to the Mid-Atlantic stock which they did to the Chesapeake stock and move further north to Massachusetts and the last remaining Southern New England biomass, it’s game over.

Sorry to be the wet rag here but it doesn’t take science or a genius to realize you can’t target the breeding population of a stock, kill substantial portions of younger age classes in the process, completely disrupt the spawn without understanding the consequences and have a year round commercial fishery providing no protection to the stock whatsoever and think any fishery will survive those conditions. This fishery will fail unless corrective measure are taken to manage it as opposed to exploiting it. Management doesn’t like using words like “collapse” or “fail” but that’s exactly what we’re witnessing and will continue to experience with this stock.