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Originally Posted by dakota560
Reason appreciate your reply and position. When I look at the data holistically I come to a different conclusion. If climate change were the primary culprit, in my opinion we wouldn't have seen a resurgence in SSB from 1989 to 2002 with a sudden reversal and continued decline ever since. The biomass is there, but it's declining every year and at an accelerated rate. Could climate be effecting egg reproduction, can't rule it out. I'd bet the build up of a winter commercial fishery and the biomass being pounded during the spawn has caused considerably more harm in the reproductive process itself and significantly higher levels of unreported dead discard. These fish years ago once they started migrating off shore went untouched for the most part, today they have no safe haven.
NMFS has tried the same failed approach for the last 20 years to the point they said the stock was rebuilt in I believe '10 or '11 and they're wrong. They've been wrong with their management approach and they're still wrong today. Let's wait and see what next year holds in store with the regulations (going to be a disaster) and what the next stock assessment tells us even with chain sweep technology. Hope I'm wrong but in my opinion we're on the wrong path and managing the fishery to a collapse.
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If fluke as a species relies on larger-class females to sustain recruitment, that is the kind of evidence you'd expect to lay blame on rec regs selecting for larger females. So far there is no evidence to that effect, though obviously we can learn much more about the species than we do currently.
I agree that winter dragging on the spawning grounds can have a huge impact, much more so than 18 - 19" rec regs. No fish should be molested during spawn, I am firmly in favor of no Spring tog season in NY for that reason.
The thing with climate change is...unfortunately, its effects on a granular level (impact on fluke for instance) is poorly understood. The data is just so massive, and as you know ecosystems are so complex and intertwined...that drawing firm conclusions as to the how and why isn't yet possible. It could be egg production, it could be juveniles settling on the bottom and not establishing themselves due to lack of plankton/food source, it could be an explosion of hitherto unknown predatory species on juveniles...I think regardless of what else NOAA gets wrong or right, incorporating climate change into their model is absolutely necessary, because it's happening.
