[reason162]

The following is a response to a similar thread in another forum, which tends to mirror my own fluking reality over the past 4-5 years. As some of you may know, the proposed cuts for next season is based on recruitment, rather than "overfishing" from any sector.

You've got a big hole in the population right now. Four consecutive poor recruitment years--2010-2013--explain what we're all seing in the catch.

The 18 to 22 inch fluke that would normally be the bulk of the landings are, for the most part, 4 or 5 years old (some 3s), which means they're from the 2010 and 2011 year classes, which were the smallest we've seen in recent years. 2012 and 2013 were better--the big shorts you're seeing--while 2014 was pretty much back to average, which accounts for all of the 12-14 inchers.

On the plus side, 2008 and 2009 saw solid recruitment, which explains why there are still reasonable numbers of larger fish being taken.

The Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Counci's Monitoring Committee reports started predicting this back in 2011, when the first poor recruitment was documented, and you could see it coming as each year's reports indicated more sub-par spawning success.

Sometimes things all come together, and we have a few episodes of pretty good action, but it can't last, because there isn't a sufficient quantity of fish to support it for long.

What we're all experiencing on the water merely validates the accuracy of the stock assessment reports, which showed that, for a few years, this is what we're in for.