Offshore Marine Forecasts

[Dollar Bill]

Just a quick question. If you're thinking about one of the remaining offshore seabass trips and want to check the :p predicted :p long range forecasts should I be looking at the Hudson to Baltimore canyon forecast? Thanks.

[codbuster]

Hudson unless your going out of Cape May!

[blkbear]

yep
http://www.newjersey-offshore.com/modules.php?name=NWS_Forecasts&zone=ANZ084

[Dollar Bill]

Yea forgot to mention I was looking to go out of Manasquan or Barnegat. So Hudson to Baltimore seemed to be a good choice. Thanks.

[coltsfan61]

Wow looking forward to fish this weekend on the j-125 for c bass but the forecast looks crappy...the only day I could go I work nights.and Thursday the last day. :(
What do you guys think weather wise?
Thanks

[MrAC1980]

Been keeping an eye on tonight's weather. Boats may delay pushing off a few hours, but hope they go, tomorrow doesn't look bad. Weekend looks to be a bust.
PM sent.

[Jay]

Yea forgot to mention I was looking to go out of Manasquan or Barnegat. So Hudson to Baltimore seemed to be a good choice. Thanks.

Your correct, Hudson Canyon. Go catch em up! :D

[CaptTB]

Hudson to Baltimore if the offshore forecast to watch, but do not ignore the inshore forecast either. (Sandyhook to Manas. out 20 nm) it is a combination of both that we watch. Ignore most if not all long range forecasts, they are generally worthless. Windguru, NOAA, pick a forecast. Once they move out more than 24-48 hours they all pretty much suck.

You also have to realize the things we take into consideration go beyond what wind speed is forecast. What direction? When does it start blowing? Where are we going on that particular day? What boat is going? What is doable for a 100+ ft. boat may bot be for a 50+ boat. (or whatever size)

For example:
FRI NIGHT E TO SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SAT E TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT...THEN BECOMING SHIFTING WINDS 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FT LATE.

So, when is the wind going to pick up on Saturday? Early Saturday morning? Could be a problem.
Saturday during the day? No problem, since by then you are already on your way home.

That is why you will not typically see boats cancel a trip until the day of. The forecasts just change too often.
Many times they do not even have to change the winds, only change when they are supposed to start (or stop)
A change of 8 or 10 hours can mean the difference between sailing or not sailing. And wave height is typically a waste
to look at. 4 to 8ft...... so is it 4 or 8? HUGE difference. Is it a swell or waves? HUGE
difference. Are they short period or long period swells? HUGE difference.

Hope that helps explain things a bit.

[aduma1107]

Hudson to Baltimore if the offshore forecast to watch, but do not ignore the inshore forecast either. (Sandyhook to Manas. out 20 nm) it is a combination of both that we watch. Ignore most if not all long range forecasts, they are generally worthless. Windguru, NOAA, pick a forecast. Once they move out more than 24-48 hours they all pretty much suck.

You also have to realize the things we take into consideration go beyond what wind speed is forecast. What direction? When does it start blowing? Where are we going on that particular day? What boat is going? What is doable for a 100+ ft. boat may bot be for a 50+ boat. (or whatever size)

For example:
FRI NIGHT E TO SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SAT E TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT...THEN BECOMING SHIFTING WINDS 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FT LATE.

So, when is the wind going to pick up on Saturday? Early Saturday morning? Could be a problem.
Saturday during the day? No problem, since by then you are already on your way home.

That is why you will not typically see boats cancel a trip until the day of. The forecasts just change too often.
Many times they do not even have to change the winds, only change when they are supposed to start (or stop)
A change of 8 or 10 hours can mean the difference between sailing or not sailing. And wave height is typically a waste
to look at. 4 to 8ft...... so is it 4 or 8? HUGE difference. Is it a swell or waves? HUGE
difference. Are they short period or long period swells? HUGE difference.

Hope that helps explain things a bit.

Thanks for post.

[MrAC1980]

Good points Capt, I like to use bouyweather since it tells you exactly those points and gives two days worth for free, more if you sign up.
http://www.buoyweather.com/wxnav6.jsp?region=NJ&program=Maps

[Dollar Bill]

Thanks CaptTB, very informative and good to know. Definitely know what you mean when you say long range forecasts are generally worthless

[coltsfan61]

Ok so I'm going to need 3 spots for sun, so that's the sat 11pm for sun. But I just need to be sure on the weather. 11 ft seas don't sound like fun


t

[CaptTB]

Ok so I'm going to need 3 spots for sun, so that's the sat 11pm for sun. But I just need to be sure on the weather. 11 ft seas don't sound like fun
And if the forecast for Sat Night into Sunday does not change between now and Saturday you won't likely see any boats sailing Saturday night.

[PaBeerGuy]

And if the forecast for Sat Night into Sunday does not change between now and Saturday you won't likely see any boats sailing Saturday night.
Friday night sail/fish saturday offshore looking ok though?

[papabear2611]

And if the forecast for Sat Night into Sunday does not change between now and Saturday you won't likely see any boats sailing Saturday night.

Thanks Capt,
It is tough for us up here in the Poconos to pick a trip even though we can go most days in a week.
I use Windfinder a lot for period/swell, wind direction, etc. but not good at picking offshore etc. By the time a Capt decides we usually have already had to leave to come down.
I try to tie two days together when I can but this time of year even one day would be great to get out. Thanks for the info again.
Frank Johnston