Sandy Hook

[JettiCrawler85]

Hit the false hook last night in search of the ever elusive Summer of 24 Fluke

Caught a bunch of shorts in one spot - one after the other biggest measuring in at a whopping 15.5”

My buddy was fly fishing - caught a double banger on the main fly and teaser fly.

The fish on the main fly was tagged.

Not a lot of bait.

I walked out front to fish before it got dark and zero bait out there. No bites.

The hunt continues

[Broad Bill]

Hit the false hook last night in search of the ever elusive Summer of 24 Fluke

Caught a bunch of shorts in one spot - one after the other biggest measuring in at a whopping 15.5”

My buddy was fly fishing - caught a double banger on the main fly and teaser fly.

The fish on the main fly was tagged.

Not a lot of bait.

I walked out front to fish before it got dark and zero bait out there. No bites.

The hunt continues

JC, sorry to hear that and for more reasons than the trip itself. One trip doesn't make a trend but there's been too many reports of the same kind. A lot of shorts and few keepers. In and of itself, younger age classes are typically a sign of a healthy fishery but in my opinion as I've said too often, the breeding population of this stock has been so devastated that the 3 year old age group population and up has been decimated and what's left are the younger age groups or "mini" fluke" we're seeing more of which are able to get through commercial nets unless those nets are already plugged.

These younger age classes, if even sexually mature, are the least productive breeders and won't be able to sustain the future of the stock not at the current population of the biomass. This time of year there should be good size fish, even in the surf, feeding heavy on bait pouring out of the bays before heading east and we're just not seeing it. I truthfully believe these hideous size minimums management has used for years combined with the focus of the commercial sector on harvesting higher market value fish representing older age classes has finally caught up with the fishery.

How management implemented a 40% or more reduction in quota, sounding the alarms something is terribly wrong with this stock, and then leave the same regulations in place which caused that 40% quota cut is arguably the stupidest decision they've ever made. There is no long term focus for this fishery from NMFS, ASMFC or MAMFC and as a result there is no long-term future for this stock.

These fish have been staging and feeding the last few weeks with keepers in no great numbers. The next two to three days of hard NE, E and SE winds may be all it takes for them to head out and then the commercial carnage begins with tens if not hundreds of thousands of prime breeders being killed, God only knows how many juvenile fish killed in the process and trillions of eggs taken out of circulation. The benefits of a longer season ending 9/25 will never be realized by the recreational sector, it might as well be October 25th. North Carolina and Virginia commercials are already salivating as they'll have their paydays at the recreational sector's and fisheries expense.

[Jigman13]

This has been without a doubt the absolute worst back bay/surf fluke season I've ever had.

[Broad Bill]

This has been without a doubt the absolute worst back bay/surf fluke season I've ever had.

Jigman think about it, with the amount of south winds this season and cold ocean temperatures, back bay fishing should have been the benefactor of those conditions and it should have been one of the best years in recent past. Right now, in Sandy Hook, good size fluke should be piling into the channels and chasing the bait pouring out of the bays but they're not because they're not there.

This is what management needs to do but won't. Three year moratorium on the commercial sector from netting during September and October. Redistribute the quota to the other ten months of the year but let the spawn occur without netting. Second, mandatory keep what you catch commercially, do away with the insane discard levels from commercial netting. That complete waste of the fishery is absolutely substantial and in my opinion significantly more than what's reported on vessel trip reports. The future of the fishery is being killed in the process of harvesting larger breeders also contributing to the decline of the stock. 90% of all fish including fluke brought up in nets and discarded go back dead, why maintain those asinine regulations and insane amounts of waste in a troubled fishery? There's literally no way this fishery can rebound the way it's being managed.

Re-assess the stock in three years and plan future regulations accordingly otherwise this is all a moot point as there won't be a fishery left to manage.

[bulletbob]

I am sure you guys remember the days when Winter flounder fishing was a river/bay, even tidal creek/pond venture.. Then one day, it became a non existent fishery in shallow water, and nowadays most winter large flounder are caught in deep water in the ocean by party boats guys fishing for other species.

Nowadays what are the party boats all hawking?. "Jumbo Ocean Fluke".. They are being caught in deep water on rough bottom, where years ago, there was no reason to go fluke fishing miles off the beach. It was all inshore in bays,rivers, and close in, within a mile or less of the beach.. Same scenario really.. keep netting and netting the big breeders, as well as allowing only the largest breeders to be kept by recs, and we will see the same result.. A decimated fishery.. If you look at the head boat reports, one would thing that all is right,. Loads of limits of big 20+ inch fluke held up by I dunno, maybe a dozen anglers ... Just wondering though, how many guys were fishing on a boat where you see 2 dozen big fluke hoisted up for the camera.. 30 keeper fluke seems like a great number.. However if 35 guys were fishing, and there were "several guys with their 3 keepers ORL", it means that a lot of guys went home without... I dunno, not being down there any more, maybe I should keep my opinions to myself, but past several trips down, it was that way.. the pics looked great, the keepers were big, and a few guys did limit out, but man a lot of guys went home fishless.. Still a lot of small fish inshore and in the rivers and bays I wonder, just no keepers?. When I was doing a lot more flue fishing a few years back, catching fluke wasn't a problem in the bay, but catching keepers was a major problem.. If there a still a lot of smaller fluke around, throughout their range, it wouldn't take long to get the fishery back in shape, with better more common sense regulations for recs AND commercials... bob

[Broad Bill]

https://thesurfersview.com/live-cams/new-jersey/manasquan-beach-cam-and-surf-report/

Next two days could mark the end of one of the worst fluke seasons on record. Thanks NMFS, ASMFC and MAFMC along with NOAA for screwing the public out of their fair share of a public resources and allowing the bodies responsible for the management of this incredibly important stock to act in complete dereliction of their responsibilities to the public, both the recreational and commercial sector, but primarily the health and well being of the stock itself.

[Duffman]

https://thesurfersview.com/live-cams/new-jersey/manasquan-beach-cam-and-surf-report/

Next two days could mark the end of one of the worst fluke seasons on record. .

How do you determine that?

[Broad Bill]

If there a still a lot of smaller fluke around, throughout their range, it wouldn't take long to get the fishery back in shape, with better more common sense regulations for recs AND commercials... bob

Bob I agree with everything in your post with the exception of three things that should be taken into consideration. First the overall population of the biomass has declined and even though the percentage of younger age classes appears to have grown relative to older age groups, actually older age classes because of the regulations have declined substantially making it appear that there's a higher percentage of younger age fish which is not the case.

Second, your post assumes those younger age groups will be allowed to reach sexual maturity and get through at least one or two uninterrupted spawns. That's not going to happen, they're going to be pounded during their migration to the shelf, they're going to be pounded from December through February wintering at the shelf and they're going to be pounded when they start their inshore migration in the spring. Many of these younger age classes won't make it to sexual maturity as they're going to be collateral damage in the commercial fishery and to a lesser degree in the recreational fishery because of these insane size regulations.

Third, and most important, management of this stock has no idea whatsoever what impact commercial netting during the spawn has on the efficacy of the spawn. That is an absolutely incomprehensible fact. They allow the stock to be pounded year-round with no protection whatsoever provided during the spawn which is the only thing that can sustain this or any fishery. No fishery can sustain the year-round pressure this fishery is under, especially when you consider more than 60 to 70% of the commercial quota is harvested in the winter and fall months when the stock is most vulnerable and the fish are spawning in the fall. There's zero chance this stock makes it under the current management philosophy, it's just a matter of time before we literally run out of time to make changes to prevent a complete collapse of one of the most valuable fisheries to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastal states.

[Broad Bill]

How do you determine that?

How do I determine next two days could represent the end of the season or that 2024 will go down as one of the worst fluke fishing seasons on record?

[Duffman]

That 2024 will go down as the worst fluke season on record?

[Jigman13]

How do you determine that?

Historically, sept storm systems usually prompt fluke marching orders to start migrating offshore. Where they will inevitably end up in the nets of comm trawlers from all over the mid Atlantic.

[Duffman]

Historically, sept storm systems usually prompt fluke marching orders to start migrating offshore. Where they will inevitably end up in the nets of comm trawlers from all over the mid Atlantic.

Yes I understand the Sept storms will send them packing.


I'm just curious to know if 2024 does go down as one of the worst fluke seasons on record, how is that determined? Is it a poundage landed thing? Or some other formula?

[Broad Bill]

Historically, sept storm systems usually prompt fluke marching orders to start migrating offshore. Where they will inevitably end up in the nets of comm trawlers from all over the mid Atlantic.

Jeremy, exactly. Fish have been staging in deeper water and feeding for a few weeks. A low pressure system triggers when they head east and that's what we have the next 2-3 days. The migration traditionally isn't gradual, when it's go time it's a massive migration which is why the stock is so vulnerable to commercial netting over the next few months. These highly concentrated schools will be met by a gauntlet of commercial netters including the larger NC and VA boats and will be annihilated with a tremendous number of shorts we've been releasing all season killed. When I got involved in researching this stock, I became friends with a handful of federal on board observers and believe me when I say people have no idea the amount of waste that's involved in the commercial fishery. 42% reduction in the commercial quota this year spells major trouble for this fishery and the powers to be responsible for managing it leave all other regulations status quo. That doesn't suggest, it dictates, that the future of this stock will be impacted by the same challenges that have caused its current declines which is an incredible commentary on just how poorly this stock is being managed.

[Broad Bill]

Yes I understand the Sept storms will send them packing.


I'm just curious to know if 2024 does go down as one of the worst fluke seasons on record, how is that determined? Is it a poundage landed thing? Or some other formula?

From my perspective, reports from people I know up and down the coast, personal time on the water, reports on this and other fishing sites and years of research understanding the changes which have taken place in the stock. As BB correctly noted in his response on this thread, a good party boat trip is 30 or 40 keepers which reflects the decline in the older age classes of the stock. Those numbers are brutal. That's not a knock on the Captains or Sponsors on this or any site, it's a sign of the condition of the stock. A 42% reduction in commercial quota for a sector which has received preferential treatment in regulations for decades means one thing, this stock is in dire trouble. And regulations which didn't work in 2021 causing those cuts are reimplemented. Help me understand the sense in that decision. Cutting quota is not the primary answer, it's part of the answer. Rebuilding the spawning stock, protecting the spawn to increase yearly recruitment levels and reducing commercial waste are the only things that will save this fishery or as I've been saying for years this will have the same ending as the winter flounder fishery for exactly the same reasons.

When we had a biomass significantly greater than today of proportionately younger age class fish (substantially lower concentration of risk), the regulations didn't mandate or incent the targeting of the spawning stock, we didn't have the build up in the offshore winter fishery we have today which is substantially greater, this fishery thrived year in year out. That's all changed and the regulations need to change to adopt to today's environment.

If anyone believes 2024 doesn't represent the worst fluke season in decades I'd be curious to hear your opinion and what you believe the future of this fishery will be in the absence of substantial changes in how it's currently being managed.

[Jigman13]

Anecdotally, the resources I've spoken with who spend substantial numbers of hours shore fishing fluke in the back bays, rivers and ocean beach fronts have all echoed comparable sentiments regarding the fluke fishing. Short city. Total lack of keepers. While I've spent less time fluking this year, I've only gotten 2 keepers and prob 200 shorts.

[Duffman]

OK, I just didn't know if this was hard numbers thing or a perception of what people have seen.

Personally, it wasn't a great year but it was by far not the worst by a long shot.

Another thing is, how many people are fishing now compared to years ago? AHMH is down to what? 3 boats? And they sail light from pics I've seen. Another reason catch numbers may be down.

Going by posted reports is meaningless IMO. I haven't posted a fluke report in a long time and also talk with many guys who no longer post and fish 3-4 days per week.

I'm not saying the fishery is in good health, just that its changed tremendously.

[Broad Bill]

Anecdotally, the resources I've spoken with who spend substantial numbers of hours shore fishing fluke in the back bays, rivers and ocean beach fronts have all echoed comparable sentiments regarding the fluke fishing. Short city. Total lack of keepers. While I've spent less time fluking this year, I've only gotten 2 keepers and prob 200 shorts.

Now add this to the equation. Science, right or wrong, estimates natural mortality (predation, sickness etc.) at 25% a year per age class. Of those two hundred fish Jigman caught, fifty presumably will die from natural predation this year. Now add in the number that will succumb to commercial and recreational discard mortality. For decades now the regulations have mandated killing off juvenile age classes while harvesting the prime breeding stock. That won't work and it isn't working. Let recreational anglers keep some smaller fish before they succumb to natural mortality, take the pressure off the 18" and larger fish and mandate commercial operators to keep what comes up in their nets until their daily quota is attained. Zero discards. And close the fishery to netting during the spawn. The population I'd bet would double in three years. Commercials will complain but is it better to share in a smaller percentage of a growing fishery with upside future benefits or have another winter flounder fishery on our hands and have the fishery closed down. 42% commercial quota cuts are systemic of a much bigger problem in this fishery than anyone's discussing or willing to address.

[Broad Bill]

OK, I just didn't know if this was hard numbers thing or a perception of what people have seen.

Personally, it wasn't a great year but it was by far not the worst by a long shot.

Another thing is, how many people are fishing now compared to years ago? AHMH is down to what? 3 boats? And they sail light from pics I've seen. Another reason catch numbers may be down.

Going by posted reports is meaningless IMO. I haven't posted a fluke report in a long time and also talk with many guys who no longer post and fish 3-4 days per week.

I'm not saying the fishery is in good health, just that its changed tremendously.

Duff,

From me perception and perspective coupled with on water results. As I said, 42% quota cuts are indicative of a failing fishery. Are less people fishing because the fishery is in the tank or for other reasons. Personally spending a couple hundred dollars to maybe catch a keeper fluke isn't very motivating. That's not exactly why I fish but for many it is. The economics have become brutal with inflation and regulatory restrictions. Posted reports are just a piece of the picture but telling in my opinion. In 2018 we all said "Definition of insanity is doing the same thing all over again and expecting different results" and 6 or 7 years later management is doing just that.

Remember the boat "New Age" from Massachusetts which was just fined for harvesting 200,000 lbs. of illegal fluke. At 3 lbs. per fish, that's almost 67,000 fish illegally harvested by one commercial operator. I'd bet New Jersey recreational anglers including party and charter boat operators combined in 2024 didn't come close to harvesting that many fish.

I've said my piece so we'll see where the cards fall.

[Duffman]

It's a shame but fluke seem to be on the same course as weakfish, winter flounder and bluefish.

Besides the regs what other factors are involved? 20+ years ago catching a smooth dog in the Raritan or SH Bay was rare, at least for me. Searobins and Skates paved the bottom along with fluke. I don't think i caught 5-6 searobins both bay or oceanside all season. But doggies? Forget about it!!!! Like fleas!

Enviromental changes playing a big part too.

[Broad Bill]

It's a shame but fluke seem to be on the same course as weakfish, winter flounder and bluefish.

Besides the regs what other factors are involved? 20+ years ago catching a smooth dog in the Raritan or SH Bay was rare, at least for me. Searobins and Skates paved the bottom along with fluke. I don't think i caught 5-6 searobins both bay or oceanside all season. But doggies? Forget about it!!!! Like fleas!

Enviromental changes playing a big part too.

Duffman,

I think fluke are on a much more accelerated course because of the nature of the fishery commercially. It's one of the few year round fisheries for commercial operators within access to all coastal ports. Winter flounder as we knew it were essentially wiped out in a few short years when the fluke stock crashed in the late 80's. With today's demand and technology, it's going to happen quickly with fluke and as I've been saying we're already experiencing that decline. Dogfish are like cormorants, they'll eat anything they can get their mouths on in massive quantities. Environment impacts everything but I don't believe it's impacting this stock nearly as much as the regulations and relentless pounding year round the stock is being subjected to. No stock can survive that and fluke won't either. It's a mathematical impossibility.

Remove one fish from the food chain and the entire food chain becomes unbalanced. Look at pics of commercial netting and see how many skates and sea robins are killed as bycatch. Bluefish and weakfish were overharvested, with weakfish the big tide runner breeders we're destroyed combined with the fall gill netters and that ended that fishery. Waste both recreationally and commercially which the regulations turned a blind eye to killed each of the fisheries you mentioned. Same is happening with fluke. Cut an annual quota by almost 50% but leave the regulations essentially the same, does it really get any more insane than that? Management is trying to protect catch values of commercial interests, grow the economic benefits and revenues generated from both the commercial and recreational sector while completely ignoring what matters most which is the stability and health of the stock. I have nothing against commercial operators carving a living from the oceans resources, as a matter of fact I'm all for it. But it can't come at the expense of those resources and the public's right to harvest those same resources any more than recreational access can come at the commercial sectors expense. Fair and equitable distribution, Magnuson Stevens Act states it very clearly, it's just ignored.

I pray I'm wrong, I don't believe I am. I've been researching this stock for seven years now and it's in trouble with nothing on the horizon to address the root cause of the problems causing it's decline.

[Duffman]

And then where does the Rec fishing go when the fluke are gone?

How many headboats call it quits when fluke are non existent in June/July/Aug
when the bulk of their tourist money should be rolling in?

On to the next species to decimate.

[Broad Bill]

Duffman,

That's the million dollar question because if the summer flounder fishery goes away or becomes so restrictive that it doesn't make sense to participate, all fisheries are going to be impacted to make up the slack or small business operators are going to have a tough time staying in business. The regulators better get their heads out of their ass because there's a tsunami headed their way and they don't see it coming or they're perfectly comfortable allowing it to happen. Not trying to be overly dramatic here, this is a real issue that will have significant impacts on a lot of people and businesses.

[Broad Bill]

Can only imagine what this means.

https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-commercial-mesh-exemptions

Consideration of these changes is intended to modernize these requirements with consideration of current fishing industry gear use and practices and to provide additional flexibility to fishery participants while continuing to meet the conservation objectives of the FMP.

Wonder how a 42% decrease in the 2024 quota aligns with the goals of the current Fisheries Management Plan FMP. Seems to be working beautifully if you're a politician looking to buy your next property in the Hamptons. If you're a summer flounder, not so much.

Additional flexibility to fishery participants, wonder exactly what that means. Not sure what exactly the driving force behind this is but I'd bet it doesn't at all benefit the stock or recreational community.

[Broad Bill]

I know it's been only a few days since the E/NE blow. Saw the sponsors reports, sorry to hear it was a slow pick. Curious if anyone else got out. A few friends I spoke with who did get said they covered a lot of water and it was as one described a wasteland as far as fluke are concerned. This latest low pressure system probably triggered the offshore movement and sadly the commercials will now absolutely crush a declining stock. For those who've ignored my warnings over the years, we're witnessing a dying fishery that will have consequential impacts both socially and economically up and down the coast. Management of this fishery, if any visit this site, have a very short window to save this fishery and it's not going to be saved by simply slashing quotas. That's what the same management bodies did with winter flounder and we all know how well that worked.

For all the extended season disciples, it's going to cost the recreational sector next year because the way the models work is they'll assume more days equals more fishing effort which means more fish harvested and more discard mortality while the stock has moved outside our reach and being mopped up commercially offshore between now and the end of our official season on 9/25. Intra season quotas for September / October have just been reset so the carnage has started.

Great work NMFS, ASMFC, MAFMC, collectively you're killing this fishery.

[Detour66]

The worst Fluke fishing that I can remember was in the late 80's. We would fish all day without a bite. But we went anyway cause that's what we do. This year for me was not that bad but to be honest I put the work in and found a new spot that held some nice fish. Then my boat's engine had problems so I have been out of the game for at least 6 weeks. Engine is finally fixed and I will be going again on Thursday and see what I can put together. But I think for most this season it has been bad.I have been hearing that from Charter, Party boat and even Sharpies. There has been a lot of talk about the south wind ruining the fishing. I talked to my brother who know some lobsterman and they said it's the worst in 25 years for them also. All I know is it's not getting better and nobody is doing a thing about it! We shall see! Tight Lines.

[Broad Bill]

The worst Fluke fishing that I can remember was in the late 80's. We would fish all day without a bite. But we went anyway cause that's what we do. This year for me was not that bad but to be honest I put the work in and found a new spot that held some nice fish. Then my boat's engine had problems so I have been out of the game for at least 6 weeks. Engine is finally fixed and I will be going again on Thursday and see what I can put together. But I think for most this season it has been bad.I have been hearing that from Charter, Party boat and even Sharpies. There has been a lot of talk about the south wind ruining the fishing. I talked to my brother who know some lobsterman and they said it's the worst in 25 years for them also. All I know is it's not getting better and nobody is doing a thing about it! We shall see! Tight Lines.

Detour you're correct about the late 80's. The fishery crashed and the biomass population dropped to it's lowest level in the last 50 years at 79 million fish with 90% less than 2 years old. Why, landing between commercial and recreational for the years 1982 thru 1988 averaged almost 26,000 metric tons and over 40 million fish a year. The stock was allowed to be insanely overfished. To put that in perspective, this year the combined landings quota is 6,800 metric tons and less than 5 million fish using last years average weight per fish landed and the stock remains in a prolonged decline.

Between the late eighties and 2002, quotas were brought in line and the stock rebounded to 173 million fish in 2002 with younger age classes constituting 97% of landings. Then recreational size minimums were introduced and the dynamics of the stock regarding gender composition, discard levels, recruitment statistic, proportional age composition of the biomass have all fallen off the cliff. Reduced quotas won't have any impact on reversing these trends or addressing the real issues plaguing the fishery. What we need is a complete overhaul in regulations which means we need a complete overhaul in the reprehensible management doing absolutely nothing to actually manage the stock.

Be curious how you make out Thursday but believe me when I say continuous south winds didn't help this season but they're not the problem. And south winds should have fueled bay fishing in warmer waters and the bay fishing as has been reported here was also way off. The regulations have destroyed the breeding stock and we're killing massive amounts of younger age class fish which already have 25% assignable natural mortality rates by targeting larger age groups. Recreational discard levels are high, commercial levels are of the charts.