So where are the big blackfish

[Togfather2530]

So reading between the lines of all the threads and my own experiences this year it’s been a struggle to put a limit of 15” keepers together this year. No bigger fish which I like to catch but usually always release anyway. So who has a story of anything sizeable 10# +. Last year there was plenty. This year nothing so far.

[Togfather2530]

When guys catch 10# fish u hear about it. Vague reports mean small fish and a bs picky scratchy bite.

[bigal427]

I had a couple of fish over 10 pounds the 2 weeks before it opened up to 5 fish. I think it's all about the conditions wind direction and seas. The big fish are always there but don't always bite. Been to wrecks and caught noting but smaller fish and went back the next day to the same piece and the big ones came out to play

[Gerry Zagorski]

I had a couple of fish over 10 pounds the 2 weeks before it opened up to 5 fish. I think it's all about the conditions wind direction and seas. The big fish are always there but don't always bite. Been to wrecks and caught noting but smaller fish and went back the next to the same day to the same piece and the big ones came out to play

What bigal said^^^^

Lots of reports of short action but I’ve also seen several reports of 10 pound plus fish and most are still fishing inshore. Many larger fish are also typically caught on deeper wrecks which get fished later on in the season when water temps drop.

[reason162]

The other possibility is that they are being fished out:

https://i.imgur.com/TmdnT6R.jpg

Note the date on that survey...zero action taken on the rec side. At least NY is starting a tag program for comms.

Sedentary and extremely slow-growing...if any fish deserves a slot limit, it's tog.

[dales529]

The other possibility is that they are being fished out:

https://i.imgur.com/TmdnT6R.jpg

Note the date on that survey...zero action taken on the rec side. At least NY is starting a tag program for comms.

Sedentary and extremely slow-growing...if any fish deserves a slot limit, it's tog.

Also consider that these numbers are NOT cut in stone just because they are numbers. Here is the latest MC (monitoring committee ) report on gender analysis on summer flounder and in general slot limits.
And I quote
Potential Biological and Socioeconomic Impacts of Slot Limits The MC discussed the potential biological impacts of slot limits and whether there are signals in the fishery data and assessment that are cause for concern regarding potential population dynamic 2 effects of the recreational fishery selectivity. Overall, the MC does not see a clear signal that managers should necessarily be concerned about recreational harvest of females. There are several ongoing changes currently being observed in the stock in terms of growth rates, sex ratios, and other dynamics. Growth rates for both sexes have slowed, and the sex ratio for larger fish has been shifting closer to 50/50. The biggest fish, over about 24 inches, are still mostly all females, but up to that point the sex ratio in the survey data is closer to 50/50. There have been several changes in stock dynamics over the last 10-15 years, including decreased mortality rates, slower growing fish, and male fish living to older ages. Much of the discussion about sex ratios and sex-specific mortality in the recreational fishery is based on the work of Morson et al. (2015)1 , the sampling for which was conducted in 2010 and 2011. This study compared recreational and commercial fishery sampling data to trawl survey data and found that the sex ratio and the sizes and ages in the commercial fishery closely matched that of the trawl surveys. In contrast, the length and age frequency and sex ratio in recreational fishery, especially in the southern region, didn't closely align with that of the trawl surveys or commercial fishery, and was more heavily weighted toward females. This study unfortunately represents a limited snapshot in time. During development of the last stock assessment, survey data was used to determine the sex of commercial and recreational fishery catch to test the application of sex specific models. The result was that most catch in these fisheries are now male, due to the factors described above including changes in growth rates and sex ratios. However, this is based on using the trawl survey data to determine the sex of the recreational catch which makes an assumption about survey and fishery equivalency. On a relative basis, the contention that the recreational fishery is removing too many large females does not appear to hold true, and in absolute terms , because total catch and F rates have decreased substantially in recent years, the fisheries are removing about half as many females (and males) as a decade ago. Assessment scientists have attempted to model a stock-recruitment relationship for this species for decades and have been unsuccessful given that the relationship is essentially flat. Thus, it's difficult to draw any conclusions about the extent to which spawning stock biomass influences recruitment. There seem to be many factors that may be affecting recruitment including environmental factors. In summary, the MC discussed that it does not seem that recreational measures and resulting mortality are causing big females to be "wiped out," and it is not clear whether they are directly affecting recruitment. It is worth noting that slot limits implemented over the course of several years would be expected to effect recreational selectivity and yield per recruit in the assessment model, although several years would be needed to see this effect. Slot limits may result in removing too many fish at smaller sizes without leaving enough to survive all the way through the slot, dissipating potential biological benefits. Another important point about moving to a slot limit is that protecting larger fish in the recreational fishery does not reduce access to these fish in the commercial fishery, and in fact is likely to increase the availability of larger fish available for the offshore commercial trawl fishery.

This data is currently being disputed by the Science side as well as the process side. Most council members do NOT support this data as it has more unkown variables than known. All of a sudden years of research on the gender / age composition of summer flounder is in a state of flux? 18" to 24" fluke are now magically 50% male? You can read the above for yourself but by their own admission the data is far from clear yet we are regulated on it anyway

The same can be said for TOG and WILL be an ongoing debate as Recs have taken it on the chin for way too long based on "faulty" science/ data on most species.

Politics have played a larger role than Science for our fisheries and its getting exposed. Debate is the key in all studies, NO ONE has gotten this right yet but a slow movement towards accountability from fisheries management in all of the data has been started. Just wish we had more support


More to come after the meetings next week in Annapolis MD

[reason162]

All of a sudden years of research on the gender / age composition of summer flounder is in a state of flux? 18" to 24" fluke are now magically 50% male?

...

The same can be said for TOG and WILL be an ongoing debate as Recs have taken it on the chin for way too long based on "faulty" science/ data on most species.

That is a surprising development in the discourse re fluke, will wait for your post after the next meeting.

However, I'm not wedded to a tog slot if the science says otherwise. It makes sense to me on an instinctive level, but instincts and gut feelings are often wrong in the face of data...whatever they need to do to rebuild the stock is fine as long as it's based on science and not politics or "economical impact."

I'm not dogmatic about how they rectify the situation...as long they do it. The inaction by the ASMFC re tog is unconscionable.

[Gerry Zagorski]

That is a surprising development in the discourse re fluke, will wait for your post after the next meeting.

However, I'm not wedded to a tog slot if the science says otherwise. It makes sense to me on an instinctive level, but instincts and gut feelings are often wrong in the face of data...whatever they need to do to rebuild the stock is fine as long as it's based on science and not politics or "economical impact."

I'm not dogmatic about how they rectify the situation...as long they do it. The inaction by the ASMFC re tog is unconscionable.

And so is the way we Recreationals have been treated with Black Sea Bass. An overbuilt fishery and the commercials get an increase but we still suffer with the same old open and closed seasons? The entire system is jacked from stock assessment survey to MRIP and that goes for every fishery...

Sad thing is we have no idea if a fishery is overfished...

[dales529]

That is a surprising development in the discourse re fluke, will wait for your post after the next meeting.

However, I'm not wedded to a tog slot if the science says otherwise. It makes sense to me on an instinctive level, but instincts and gut feelings are often wrong in the face of data...whatever they need to do to rebuild the stock is fine as long as it's based on science and not politics or "economical impact."

I'm not dogmatic about how they rectify the situation...as long they do it. The inaction by the ASMFC re tog is unconscionable.

What to me IMHO is that a document like I posted can even be generated and submitted to the public / councils with admitted unclear data and be submitted for regulation with an economic impact on 100's of thousands anglers/ for hire boats along the coast. This HAS TO STOP

[reason162]

Sad thing is we have no idea if a fishery is overfished...

It really is your choice to disregard the survey data.

Or are you saying fish stocks are unknowable?

[hammer4reel]

NY boats caught them here for 6 weeks before we were allowed to in our own waters.
Bite in October was unreal and they cashed in on it.

our season should have the same start date .

[dakota560]

That is a surprising development in the discourse re fluke, will wait for your post after the next meeting.


It's not a surprising development at all the more you learn about the inter-workings of fisheries management. Tremendous amount of strife and conflict among the committees and agencies themselves. No one wants to have the finger pointed at them or become the smoking gun of how a fishery that flourished for 15 years with record growth changed in one year and has since been in a free fall decline over the last 16 years. They control the data, they control the entire process. No one from the outside is let in. If the data doesn't support the desired outcome, change the data or ask a different question. Definition of politics, not the definition of fisheries management. Accountability is lacking up and down the line because it's been set up that way with two three letter acronyms. "BAS" Best available science and "MSA" Magnuson Stevens Act". If they can't answer a question or the data doesn't support their position, one of the two excuses are used or the data is changed. IT ALL HAS TO CHANGE.

Public is not educated to the politics and protectionist BS taking place so I'll give you one clear example.

The survival of summer flounder recruits, expressed as the R/SSB ratio, was higher in the 1980's and early 1990's than in the years since 1996. That's a direct quote from the most recent stock assessment report published earlier this year. Number of recruits (new fish added to the population) absolutely tanked from the 80's and mid 90's to today. 80% DECREASE!

Followed by this comment from the lead scientist responsible for the summer flounder fishery.

The assessment shows that current mortality from all sources is greater than RECENT recruitment inputs to the stock. ALTHOUGH RECRUITMENT INDICES HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE IN THE MOST RECENT YEARS,
the driver of this pattern has not been identified nor is it clear if the pattern will continue in the future. If recruitment improves, current catches may allow the stock to increase, but if recruitment remains low or further decreases, FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN CATCH WILL BE NECESSARY.

All comments are from the 66th Stock Assessment published earlier this year and couldn't be more contradictory. Recruitment dynamics drastically changed in 1997, 22-years ago, at precisely the same time older age classes started being harvested. OLDER SEXUALLY MATURE FISH WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PROPORTION OF FEMALES HAVING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF EGG CAPACITY. And fishery management refers to this as a recent unexplained anomaly!

Recreational discard rates are definitely contributing to the problem but it's the result of policy decisions with increased size minimums. We have no choice.
Commercial harvest is targeting older age classes selectively since 1997 because landings decreased in 1996 and with 75% of their catch coming during the fall / winter months, it means the majority of the harvest coincides with the spawn and off-shore summer flounder staging areas during the winter months. In 2018, 46% of the commercial harvest occurred between January through March and 64% of the overall harvest came from three areas, 613, 616 and 537, right in our local waters. Areas where the biomass is highly concentrated and must vulnerable. Won't be long before that biomass is destroyed just as the southern stock already has. Precisely why the southern states fleet are up here harvesting their quotas. Someone honestly tell me reproduction isn't being adversely impacted by harvesting almost exclusively females and pounding this stock during their spawning season yet the governing body allows it to happen. When younger age classes were being harvested, recruitment levels were healthy and discard rates paled in comparison to what they are today. Keep in mind, commercial dead discard rates have an 80% mortality factor assigned which truthfully is probably 100% considering the depths these fish are being hauled from and the time of year.

Gender composition of the the spawning stock has been devastated in every age class that matters so now to Dave's point, they change the data to suggest that fish below 24" are 50 / 50 males / females and there's not a gender imbalance caused by past and current regulations they recommended to the Commission and Council. That contradicts Rutgers Length and Sex study and every other research paper I've read regarding length and sex composition of the stock including NOAA and NMFS papers themselves. But to think they'll willingly publish information which will indite past decisions or their credibility, not going to happen. BS has to change.

And in the same correspondence, when you relate the fact 92 fish we're harvested on seven personal trips this year (two including party boats) with all but three of the 92 being females and when an AP Advisor on the Council himself relates in 2017 he personally witnessed 187 summer flounder filleted throughout the season in South Jersey with only 1 being a male, their reply is they've noticed a recent trend that males are staying further offshore. Again, don't like the question asked or the answer doesn't support their desired result, manipulate the data. This after years of being told smaller fish, more males than females, have a propensity of inhabiting shallower waters.

Until ASMFC and MAFMC acknowledge the inconsistencies and contradictions in their own data, decisions are being based on bogus data and regulations will cause further declines in this fishery.

Has to change not just for Summer Flounder, the entire process needs to transition from personal and political agendas and protectionist behavior to fisheries management. A vital fishery which has declined in every key aspect (biomass, SSB, catch levels, gender composition, recruitment, elevated discard rates, shortened seasons) since 2003 and we're looking at status quo measures for 2020. 17 years of failure and the management body is seriously considering status quo. Not measures which will address the causes of the decline, just more of the same regulations which will perpetuate and more likely than not accelerate those declines! Absolutely incomprehensible!

[bulletbob]

NY boats caught them here for 6 weeks before we were allowed to in our own waters.
Bite in October was unreal and they cashed in on it.

our season should have the same start date .

I agree.. For whatever reason, NJ Tog fishermen have been talking glowingly about "Blackfish weather" for years.. never made sense to me.. the fish start shutting down fairly soon after the season starts in NJ.. Yes they still eat, and can be caught but it is SO much more "picky".
To me blackfish weather always meant a nice sunny october day around 65 degrees with about a 60 degree water temp.. NOT 25 degrees, high winds, heavy seas spitting snow in mid to late December, and a 40 degree water temp..

too many days when they are just not that active this time of year..

Tog are much more active in 60-65 degree water than they are in 45 degree or below water.

This all started when the winter party boat fisheries collapsed.
Most boats did not fish for tog in winter to any extent.
Nowadays, they are all thats left pretty much as far as inshore fishing, so we have "blackfish weather".. Winter conditions, and scratchy bites from tentative fish on a lot of days. bob

[Togfather2530]

I think next year I’ll start targeting them earlier Bob.

[bulletbob]

I think next year I’ll start targeting them earlier Bob.

NY regs is the way to go, but NJ won't buy it.. they don't want us fishing when the fish are most active...

years ago I noticed a general pattern with blackfish,, they seemed to bite best when the fluke are moving in strongly in spring, and then when fluke are moving out strongly in fall.. I think the best time is when the water temp is between the low 50's to low 60's... bob

[Fisherman120]

3 trips so far caught 3 keepers, 6 and then 5 to 8.5 lbs. I haven't found the bite to be great nor bad. Anybody who fished 2017s fall/winter knows this year is stellar in comparison.

[Chrisper4694]

ny boats caught them here for 6 weeks before we were allowed to in our own waters.
Bite in october was unreal and they cashed in on it.

Our season should have the same start date .

^^ this ^^

[Reelron]

I don't know? A "simple" question is asked and the answers go off into a long discourse on all fish stocks?

I have a page on facebook called Togaholics. Every day Captains and individuals post fishing reports and photos of Double Digit fish that have been caught, so I see many DD Tog being caught. Maybe you just aren't looking in the right places?

[Togfather2530]

I don't know? A "simple" question is asked and the answers go off into a long discourse on all fish stocks?

I have a page on facebook called Togaholics. Every day Captains and individuals post fishing reports and photos of Double Digit fish that have been caught, so I see many DD Tog being caught. Maybe you just aren't looking in the right places?

Ok. Glad to hear u r hearing them being caught. I have been catching. Nothing much over 17”. Most are shorter fish. I would be glad to take u fishing for free anytime u want if u want to put me on the big ones

[kurtisb]

I caught a 13# on 12/4 near Elberon. That may be the earliest time of year that I've caught a DD.

[Detour66]

Not sure why anglers need to take 10 lb plus Blackfish but they do. Just take a pic and let them go. I would think these are big breeders. Are they even good eating compared to smaller fish? I understand we have the right to keep them but I personally will not keep a fish over 5 lbs. I'm not saying this the main cause of decline of big Blackfish but it sure isn't helping our cause. It's always so cool to see them big fish swim away to fight another day. But to each his own I guess. Tight lines.

[Gerry Zagorski]

More often then not I see people releasing these 10 pound plus fish... I've actually seen people and boats go out of there way for hours to revive them. Do some people keep them? I'm sure they do and that's there choice but it's not like it was years ago when everything that came on board was kept.

[Gerry Zagorski]

I caught a 13# on 12/4 near Elberon. That may be the earliest time of year that I've caught a DD.

This right here ^^^^ Kurtis puts in more days then most and has been doing this a long time and as he points out, most of the larger fish are usually caught much later in the season.

Ken Westerfelds current world and state record fish was caught in January as was the 25 pound NJ record holder before it.