Where the heck are the Fluke?

[Capt John]

According to my records of the past 15 years, Father's Day was always the start of some active (shorts and many keepers) Fluke, but this year, so far has been really tough. PB's and charters going after Ling, Whiting and Sea Bass....what the hell is going on here?

Curious to hear your thoughts on this. Are they still east of us? Cold water? Buried in the mud/sand? Moved north? Already at Fulton? What gives?

Slim pickin's to say the least. Care to weigh in?

[bulletbob]

The sea Bass boats are getting quite a few whiting, lots of Ling, and even a few Cod inshore in about 50-60 FOW, each report I see here... In all my years i can't recall good fluke fishing at the same time whiting were being caught inshore.. My vote is that the water is still cold.. That and a buck will get you 3/4 of a cup of gas station coffee.... bob

[reason162]

According to best avail science, the main body of fluke are shifting north due to climate change, along with BSB and everything else. I'm sure that's a controversial statement to many here...but it shouldn't be. It certainly fits what we're seeing.

But perhaps some southern species will take its place. Personally, I'm ready for some red drum in RB.

[bulletbob]

According to best avail science, the main body of fluke are shifting north due to climate change, along with BSB and everything else. I'm sure that's a controversial statement to many here...but it shouldn't be. It certainly fits what we're seeing.

But perhaps some southern species will take its place. Personally, I'm ready for some red drum in RB.

Yeah, I don't buy that for a second. They simply don't show up some years, and its been that way since I was a kid. can't begin to say why that might be.. I remember lots of years back in the 60's and 70's where there were very few fluke... bob

[reason162]

Yeah, I don't buy that for a second.

Bob, the scientists who sift through mountains of historical data, along with current catch data and tagging studies etc see a connection between rising temps and northward migrations...if that's true, it's true whether you buy it or not lol.

If you reject scientific conclusions out of hand, many things become mysterious. In this case, the disappearance of fluke from our local waters.

[Billfish715]

There might be lots of ideas about it all. A change to long-term summer weather will help put patrons at the rails despite the poor fishing. Good weather always brings people to the saltwater. A chance to catch fish can only help, even if they are shorts.

Rain, rain, rain........freshwater influx is my theory. Fluke can live and migrate in cold water. I don't give the water temperature excuse too much weight. Bait? There are sandeels not far from the beaches. Reports are coming in about fluke in the surf. There just hasn't been a large push of fluke from offshore as of yet. Just like they disappear suddenly in early September, I am guessing, they will appear suddenly, only later. Appear they will. In the meantime, we wait........or fish in the river.

In any case, if the season gets cut next year or if the size limits are increased, expect a class action lawsuit.

[Billfish715]

The tagging studies and scientific studies do show that fluke are migrating north toward Montauk, Block Island, Nantucket etc. Those fish, though are fish that spent a year or two in the N.Y. Bight or off the coast of NJ. As the fluke age and take on size, they are moving north of us. My tag returns have come from fluke that I tagged the previous year and were recaptured in places like Barnegate Bay and the Manasquan River and Brick Beach to name a few. To me, that means fish are returning to places near where they were caught.

Do more fluke move north from south Jersey to the N.Y. area? Absolutely! Many folks would like to pin the reasons for a decline in the fishery to a single occurrence. To say that the fluke are moving out because of a change in the climate is very short sighted, but it's an easily understood and acceptible excuse to the casually informed public. It's also a very popular rationalization that does not mention other environmental and biological theories.

Let's talk about this again in a month or two. If the fluke don't show up in any numbers by then, we'll start pointing fingers at lots of factors but most of them will point toward the scientists who are generating (or not generating) catch limits on offshore spawners.

[Billfish715]

Hey John, How long of a ride is it from your dock to Montauk? Check out the Miss Montauk II post on this board. The pictures speak volumes about where the fluke are now.

[fish4fun]

There must be fluke around because yesterday I saw tons of it at my local seafood store. So what's
the problem?

[RescueDogger]

If the climate change theory is true then maybe we'll start seeing some cobia.
Such a fighter and great eating -- I was ill prepared for the mahem that began once we finally got him in the boat. My son ended up beating him with the anchor and I'm lucky we didn't ding the fiberglass.

[Luckyduck]

Maybe the net draggers got them didn’t they up there Quota by 40%

[fishunt]

i just think the seabass fishing been so go that eveybody been sticking to the seabass/ ling. we will see next week what happen when everybody switches over to fluking.

[rwp2101]

i just think the seabass been so go that eveybody been sticking to the seabass/ ling. we will see next week what happen when everybody switches over to fluking.

The AH party boats that focus on fluke don't decide to bottom fish because the sea bass bite is good, it's because the fluking is bad-- and it's bad.

[bulletbob]

OK, I get it now.. the water off NJ is too WARM for Fluke.. However, the whiting are inshore in mid June.. yeah, that makes perfect sense.

So I guess the summer flounder that are resident in Florida year round,and have ALWAYS been there right alongside Gulf and Southern flounder should pack their bags and move north to Georgia to get away from WARM water... oh brother....

[Castaway]

Bob, the scientists who sift through mountains of historical data, along with current catch data and tagging studies etc see a connection between rising temps and northward migrations...if that's true, it's true whether you buy it or not lol.

If you reject scientific conclusions out of hand, many things become mysterious. In this case, the disappearance of fluke from our local waters.

Would these happen to be the same scientists that have been telling us for years now that the seabass stocks are down?

[Canyonfish]

From many past discussions on this board alone over Fluke regulations regarding the season start, duration and stop ... given the choice of an early start in May or a later end in September many Fluke anglers preferred that the season end later since early catch size and frequency were spotty early compared to later when it got hot right when Fluke was going to close down.

Nothing scientific here, but in the many years of Fluking I have done in the waters in and around Sandy Hook ...... this has been the case.

The Fluke will show.....

[bulletbob]

Fluke in June has been a crap shoot as long as I have been fishing.. Some years great , other years dead.. If its this slow a month from now in mid July we can bitch.. Right now, let the water warm up a bit.. The rocky bottom from asbury to sea bright that so many guys like to fish for big fluke in july and august still has a a lot of ling and even some whiting around... Once the water warms up into the higher 60's the fluke should start showing in better numbers...
The water temp at Sandy hook was 64 as of tuesday. Things will pick up soon IF the fish show in good numbers.. they may not.. Some years the numbers just aren't there, for whatever reason.. After close to 60 years of salt water fishing, I have seen some terrible years when the fluke just weren't there.. 30-40 years ago global warming wasn't a "thing" so we didn't blame it for bad fishing .. We just said .. "man its bad fishing this year"... bob

[Capt. Debbie]

But the water temp is COLDER than normal. Hows that work again?

No bluefish 2018. Many caught in No NJ bluefish 2019?


Bob, the scientists who sift through mountains of historical data, along with current catch data and tagging studies etc see a connection between rising temps and northward migrations...if that's true, it's true whether you buy it or not lol.

If you reject scientific conclusions out of hand, many things become mysterious. In this case, the disappearance of fluke from our local waters.

[Billfish715]

Fluke in June has been a crap shoot as long as I have been fishing.. Some years great , other years dead.. After close to 60 years of salt water fishing, I have seen some terrible years when the fluke just weren't there.. 30-40 years ago global warming wasn't a "thing" so we didn't blame it for bad fishing .. We just said .. "man its bad fishing this year"... bob
Exactly! All of us " Junior Fisheries Scientists " and professional scientists have theories about why the fishing isn't as good as we would like it to be. There has to be a scapegoat to blame for when fishing is poor. Our theories are as good as the more learned scientists who can point to their "data-driven" decisions as answers to any shortcomings in the fisheries. The current scapegoat is climate change. The fact is that many factors enter into why the fishing is good or bad. We all want reasons and scapegoats to explain away our shortcomings. Sometimes shtuff happens and we can't control it but it's not limited to any one factor.

What is more interesting is that we seldom hear theories from the scientists or many others about why the fishing is so good when it is. All I hear is crickets when it comes to explain the current excellent seabass fishing. Is the good fishing because of climate change as well?

I can almost bet that this board will light up with theories when the seabass fishery falls off. The scientists will be sure to post their data and many will point to climate change. Sometimes fishing is just bad.

[bulletbob]

Fluke are a species that has a wide range along the western atlantic.. some straglers as far north as the canadian maritimes, which i will never understand because there are very few to none in New Hampshire and Maine...

There are LOTS of them from maryland down to florida and they fish for them all year in the coastal florida rivers, along with southern anf gulf flounder which are similar but smaller. They LIKE warm water, and personally i have my doubts they are heading further north to find colder water.. it just makes no sense to me..

At 72 degrees in late summer the water in NJ is often stiff with them and they bite readily, but in the same areas in early summer/late spring at say 62 degrees, tey will be picky, slow to bite and seemingly MIA... So they want to go into a colder environment so they will be less active???.. Doesn't add up..

keep this in mind as well- Throughout ALL of nature, food availability trumps all other considerations in survival, and most fish WILL go out of preferred temp to go where their food is.. If we find in time that the bulk of whatever Fluke feed on most has shifted north, than I am on the bandwagon... However, I would bet right now there is plenty of them to eat right in the NY Bight.. I have heard there were huge masses of sandeels this year out on the sea bass grounds.. If Fluke are keying on them and staying more offshore??.. who knows??.. It might just be a late short season of good fluking.. Or not.. I just don't think they all packed their bags and moved to Montauk because the water there is a few degrees cooler.... bob

[reason162]

All I hear is crickets when it comes to explain the current excellent seabass fishing. Is the good fishing because of climate change as well?

Pretty much, yes: https://youtu.be/pgrWEHfNV6Y

[courbeco]

Would these happen to be the same scientists that have been telling us for years now that the seabass stocks are down?

They may be the same scientists that changed the "Global Warming" label to the current "Climate Change" label.....:D Climate change has nothing to do with the non-existing fluke bite. This isn't the first time fluking in June sucked....!

[bulletbob]

Pretty much, yes: https://youtu.be/pgrWEHfNV6Y

Bullshit.. Sea Bass fishing in southern New England has been good for as long as I have been alive.. Its also good in virginia and the carolinas where the water is always warm.. they live as far south as Florida and the gulf of mexico, ALWAYS have, and as far north as Maine, always have..

Honestly, have you been watching the reports here for the past several years?.. Black sea Bass are very abundant here in the NY Bight, in southern NE where they are caught right alongside Hake, Cod and Haddock, and down the coast well into the carolinas where they are caught right alongside tropical Groupers and Snappers... Any fish with wide distribution , and big populations will expand range at times.. Whiting for decades were as far south as delaware.. Why? because they were abundant in the extreme, and expanded their range a bit.. When the population dropped off to nothing, they were no longer common in the southern part of their range, .. thats the way its always been.. Fluke and Black Sea Bass are not ""moving north""... bob

[GDubya07]

All I know is that they are not in the ocean right now or they might be there and just not biting or try the rivers ???

Colder water, to much rain, not enough bait, maybe wherever they are at they have a good food source so why leave, climate change , global warming or just plain being lazy. Maybe somebody just keeps scooping them up ??? It is just an opinion and we all got one just like the good Ol' balloon knot-:rolleyes:

Cats and dogs sleeping together - Mass Hysteria - quote from Dr. Peter Venkman from the original Ghostbusters circa. 1984

They aint biting , Tuna, seabass ( till Saturday ) Ling and winter flounder are doing pretty good though with a sprinkle of whiting

If you have the means and the time just get out in fish if you can

E.L.E

Catchum Up

GDubs-:cool:

[the directa]

Still only June give it some time 90 degree sunny days and warmer water is fluke time

[Detour66]

The Fluke are here. You just have to know where and how. One of my friends has caught over 50 keepers and many shorts. They are just not in the traditional places we caught them in the past this time of year. I think once the water clears up from all the rain and warms up a bit it will be good fishing. Till then it's a waiting game!

[reason162]

Bullshit..

Lol sure bob, I'll take your word for it over peer reviewed studies.

If only science were bullshit, all of us can just armchair ourselves into new discoveries, medicine, technology...why even bother with the process? All that schooling and training and data collecting/modeling...what a waste of time!

[stripedbass]

In the water.

[bulletbob]

Lol sure bob, I'll take your word for it over peer reviewed studies.

If only science were bullshit, all of us can just armchair ourselves into new discoveries, medicine, technology...why even bother with the process? All that schooling and training and data collecting/modeling...what a waste of time!

it IS a waste of time.. Just ask the captains and the anglers that hire them.. they have always been caught down south AND up north, and will be after you and I are stardust..

[dales529]

it IS a waste of time.. Just ask the captains and the anglers that hire them.. they have always been caught down south AND up north, and will be after you and I are stardust..

In actuality Bob many for hire captains from Va to NC commented at the ASMFC council meetings on the northward migration of both Fluke and Black Seabass leaving their areas diminished of normal stocks ocean side. in doing so they requested an ease to their regulations due to under harvest of these fish compared to the northern areas. While they still have a small fishery it is nothing compared to what they are used to and again their words:"due to the obvious northward migrations of significant bodies of fish" They also asked for stricter regulations to the areas that have received this northward migration.

Call it whatever you want but nature has moved north and they just react (no opinion or science required) However both science and Captains on the water have stated the same and it is part of all regulations discussions going forward

Its obvious as well that LI, RI , MA , and even Nova Scotia have a thriving fluke fishery compared to NJ and we even more those south of us.

While I believe we here in NJ still have and will have a great Fluke fishery. Already have back a great Sea bass fishery its clear to me that fish are migrating more north than the typical east / west and southern species are now here in our waters.

"Climate Change" to those willing to listen is more about the acceleration of change to conditions that normally change over a significant longer period of time. Nature is reacting to this acceleration regardless of human acceptance.
Doesn't mean we still don't have winter or cold water just means shit is changing faster than ever before and nature gets it!

[NoLimit]

This is all BS
Wind direction has a bigger effect on ocean temp than latitude. These “peer reviewed” studies are useless.

[flyersnfluke]

Long Island boats are doing well. Montauk always seems to have an excellent run, but boats out of captree are not having a problem catching fluke right now. Last year there was an early body of fish in the reach channel (approaching Staten Island), but once that body of fish moved out/fished out it was tougher fishing. However, out east, again on long island, and if you were willing to motor pretty Far East of AH, you could find some fish. One thing that was noted by long island fishermen was that the fluke were spitting up sand lance, so there was a good food supply further east. This was supported by big numbers of Cory’s and greater shearwaters southeast of Jones inlet, it was believed the big numbers of these sea birds were also feasting on sand lance. If, during their inshore migration, fluke are finding an ample food supply, they have little reason to move further inshore. Just another thought.
As for fluke being found further north, they were always around Nantucket/the vineyard/tuckernuck, they just weren’t targeted for some reason

[penn50w]

maybe the net draggers got them didn’t they up there quota by 40%

bingo!!!

[Billfish715]

As long as we're making guesses about where the fluke are or where they went, here is my supposition. Is it a coincidence that the Angler is gone and so are the fluke? No fluke......no Angler......No Angler.......no fluke! :(

[hammer4reel]

Head east

[bulletbob]

My opinion is that wherever they are, they aren't going looking for colder water..
BTW, I had no idea about this commercial 40% quota increase that was was posted on this thread... Thats catastrophic if true.
I would love for someone to enlighten me on this ... bob

[dakota560]

My opinion is that wherever they are, they aren't going looking for colder water..
BTW, I had no idea about this commercial 40% quota increase that was was posted on this thread... Thats catastrophic if true.
I would love for someone to enlighten me on this ... bob

Bob......here's a link to an article written by Dan Radel with APP which attempts to explain to 40% increase.

https://www.app.com/story/sports/outdoors/fishing/hook-line-and-sinker/2019/03/14/summer-flounder-big-quota-bump-wont-mean-more-fish-anglers/3153388002/

Two statements you should note:

The logic is recreational fishermen actually caught closer to 7.69 million pounds of fluke in 2018 than 4.4 million pounds because there are more fluke in the ocean than models used in past benchmark assessments reported.

AND

The reason for the disparity is because new data points were used in the 2018 benchmark stock assessment for summer flounder. Mail-in surveys were used to gather fishing effort from anglers in the Marine Recreational Information Program, or MRIP, instead of phone calls. The mail-ins "reported much higher catches of summer flounder than were estimated," said Kirby Rootes-Murdy, the senior Fishery Management Plan coordinator for the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission.

So in other words more fish in the stock assessment but recreational quota remains status quo because historical recreational catch numbers which were based on "BEST AVAILABLE SCIENCE" used by highly competent scientists with all that schooling, training and data collecting/modeling expertise are now saying they GROSSLY under-estimated recreational catch in previous models. That should give everyone an idea of what "best available science" actually means. It's an extremely relative term which is essentially a disclaimer that the data regulatory decisions are being based on could be materially wrong but it's best available. And this is all because recreational catch numbers based on MRIP are now being collected through mail in replies as opposed to phone calls. And I'm sure a 99% confidence level was assigned to that statement the same as the numbers used in previous models which by default NMFS is now saying are materially wrong.

Stock goes down, recreational anglers take a hit. Stock goes up, we still take a hit based on guesstimates just as speculative as the older version of MRIP while commercial operators received a 40% increase. An increase equivalent to in excess of $10,000,000 in incremental catch values subsidized by the harvest of larger fish recreational anglers are mandated to release. 14" - 17.99 for NJ, 14" to 18.99 for NY, Ct and RI.

But rest assured, this all passed Peer Review so our concerns should be put to rest. Only other industry which can be so far off with forecasts and models without question is the Weather Bureau. They report up under NOAA and the Department of Commerce as well so makes perfect sense.

I agree we need science, but accepting it face value when the fishery is in a prolonged 17 year decline in all aspects (recruitment, catch levels and the biomass in general) is as illogical as thinking we don't need science at all. But blind faith isn't the answer either. Unfortunately this is a David and Goliath situation and I doubt David is winning this one.

[unclegary47]

The most feared phrase on earth "We're the government and we're here to help"!!!!!!

[dakota560]

One more point for the resident Peer Review disciples. The stock assessment report provides commercial catch statistics and biomass composition in terms of age class fish for the years 1982 through 2012.

Here's what that data states. 90% of commercial catch in the 80's and 90's was made up of age class fish 2 years or younger. For the years 2010 - 2012, that percentage dropped to 16% and based on the trend is most likely less than 5% today. The importance of that statistic among other things is summer flounder don't attain sexually maturity until somewhere between 2-3 years of age. Keep in mind, in the 80's and 90's, recreational size limits were either 13" or 14" so recreational catch most likely consisted of similar catch composition.

Number of fish commercially harvested between 1982 - 1989 ages 2 and younger averaged 23.3 million fish annually. In 2012, last year of published data, that number dropped to 887,000, a significant change in catch composition. So in the 90's when the data shows a 600% increase in the biomass, overall harvest consisted predominantly of sexually immature fish. Scroll forward to today, it's the exact opposite. Recreational because of size limit increases, commercial because there's increased catch value harvesting the larger fish recreational anglers are being forced to release to compensate for cuts in catch quotas. I don't blame them one bit to remain in business. I blame fisheries management for not understanding the consequences of their decisions.

Keep following the logic. If summer flounder in the 2 yr and younger class are essentially no longer commercially or recreationally being harvested, we should be seeing explosive growth in the biomass of these year classes. We're not. Years 1982 - 1989 averaged 122 million fish in the biomass annually, years 2011 - 2012 averaged 72 million, a 41% decrease in a biomass that increased 600% over that period. That's virtually impossible. If 23 million less fish a year are being harvested commercially and none recreationally, coupled with the six-fold increase in the size of the biomass today compared to the mid 80's, there should be somewhere in the proximity of 250 - 300 million of these age class fish in today's biomass. The question the scientific community and fisheries management should be asking is what's happened to these age classes? We should be seeing an exponential increase in these age classes but the data instead shows a significant reduction. Either the fish are there and the stock is being materially under estimated or the data is correct which means there's a major problem with this age class of the stock not being addressed. Pick your poison since they both negatively impact catch quotas.

Again best available science, peer review so we should accept the data and decisions face value. I couldn't disagree more. These are material changes in historical relationships in a fishery that's been in a prolonged decline. In my opinion, the result of unintended consequences of regulatory decisions. But my opinion or anyone else's doesn't matter so we depend on the scientific community, councils and committees to ask the question for us but don't hear anyone asking these questions. Instead, they immediately go to cuts in catch, shortened seasons, increases in size limits or reductions in possession limits all decisions in my opinion further compounding the problem.

[Joey Dah Fish]

Pretty much, yes: https://youtu.be/pgrWEHfNV6Y

There is huge expansion in the population. Is that climate change or over regulation? Hmmmmmm

[dakota560]

UpThere is huge expansion in the population. Is that climate change or over regulation? Hmmmmmm

Could be any number of factors. Va and NC make up ~50% of the commercial quota, is it commercial over fishing by southern states in their local waters that depleted the more southern portion of the biomass and not migratory movement at all. You could make the same argument with whiting, cod and mackerel in our local waters, they were here years ago but now any sizable concentration is north. Climate change, we all know it's not. Commercial carnage that caused irreparable damage to the local biomass, we all know it was. Maybe expansion up north is the result of less recreational and commercial fishing there relative to our area. Could be changes in the ocean's ecosystem over the years due to storms. Look at what Sandy did up here to hard bottom areas that were covered up. Is it due to beach replenishment removing sand from the ocean floor and changing bottom contours. Is it bait movement or worse the displacement of forage by commercial efforts. Could be natural expansion, could be temperature changes but personally I don't think anyone can say for sure.

Anecdotal. When I was growing up, many years our family would go to Maine on vacation. Saco Beach Inlet was one of our stops along the way. Fishing was incredible for stripers and just about everything else. One year in the 70's, bunker showed up in big numbers for the first time. At the same time, huge bluefish showed up with them. None of the locals knew what they were, tackle shops didn't even stock lures to fish for them. Was that climate change or expansion based on bait movement. If the later, what caused the bait to move north? The bait was there and the bluefish followed, in that case it had nothing to do with warming water temperatures since there was still a thriving fishery in our local waters.

Stock assessment states average length to age for both male and female summer flounder has been declining since the 90's. If fish aren't growing faster I'd imagine lack of forage is a strong possibility. As Bob mentioned in his earlier post, is the location of the biomass being influenced by that as opposed to water temperatures. Years ago, sand eels were all over until commercial netting destroyed that forage base as well. Take away the bait, predators will seek food elsewhere. The amount of sand eels today, like everything else, pales in comparison to the numbers in the 60's, 70's and 80's. Change the food chain at any level and everything above that link changes with it. Go to Massachusetts and see how may sand eels are around compared to our local waters and it's hard to argue bait availability doesn't have some impact on geographical movements of fish stocks. If we didn't have the bunker in our area we've been seeing over the years would we have the amount of bass we've been experiencing during their migration. Not a chance. Bunker move off shore, predators follow. Reduction boats with their spotter planes mop them up and the bass are gone. Maybe the same can be said with fluke and sand eels. Remember years past seeing baby whiting, baby ling, baby weakfish, small porgies in fluke's stomachs. All those fisheries have either disappeared or declined significantly over the years. You can't deny there's climate change occurring, what impact it's having on stock movement is anyone's guess. It's easy to use climate change as a catch all reason for everything if all other possibilities are immediately discounted or ruled out.

[Billfish715]

If the "scientific" estimate of the fluke population is actually an "underestimate"
of the total, almost any recreational harvest number will be skewed. The quota projection for the following year will either remain constant or be reduced. Since the governmental agencies do not have an accurate tally of the number of fluke that are harvested or the overall population of fluke in the ocean, we will be in an unending loop of restrictive limits and quotas.

It's like being told that your bank account has less money in it than it actually does. You'll be very cautious about your spending habits and will probably deny yourself some of the things you may want or need just to stay fiscally solvent. That's when you get a notice from the bank with a " My bad " in bold letters informing you that they had made a mistake and are crediting your account with the money you deserved. NMFS needs to audit their numbers and credit the recreational fishermen with the fluke we deserve. Because of their inaccurate accounting, we have been short changed for way too many years.

Dakota, is that explanation anywhere close to one of the problems or solutions? I'm still trying to get my head around the system that is being used and the historical data that is mentioned.

[bulletbob]

Could be any number of factors. Va and NC make up ~50% of the commercial quota, is it commercial over fishing by southern states in their local waters that depleted the more southern portion of the biomass and not migratory movement at all. You could make the same argument with whiting, cod and mackerel, they were here years ago but now any sizable concentration is north. Climate change, we all know it's not. Commercial carnage that caused irreparable damage to the local biomass, we all know it was. Maybe expansion up north is the result of less recreational and commercial fishing up north relative to our local waters. Could be changes in the ocean's ecosystem over the years due to storms. Look what Sandy did up here to hard bottom areas that were covered up post Sandy. Is it due to beach replenishment removing sand from the ocean floor and changing bottom contours. Is it bait movement? Could be natural expansion, could be temperature changes but personally I don't think anyone can say for sure.



Anecdotal. In the 70's, every year we'd go to Maine on vacation. Saco Beach Inlet was one of our stops along the way. Fishing was incredible for stripers and just about everything else. One year, bunker showed up in big numbers for the first time. At the same time, huge bluefish showed up with them. None of the locals knew what they were, tackle shops didn't even have plugs to fish for them. Was that climate change or expansion based on bait movement. If the later, what caused the bait to move north? The bait was there and the fish followed, in that case it had nothing to do with warming water temperatures.

Stock assessment states average length to age for both male and female summer flounder has been declining since the 90's. If fish aren't growing faster I'd imagine lack of forage is a strong possibility. As Bob mentioned in his earlier post, is the location of the biomass being influenced by that as opposed to water temperatures. Years ago, sand eels were all over until commercial netting destroyed that fishery as well. Take away the bait, predators will seek food elsewhere. The amount of sand eels today, like everything else, pales in comparison to the numbers in the 60's, 70's and 80's. Change the food chain at any level and everything above that link changes with it. Go to Massachusetts and see how may sand eels are around compared to our local waters and it's hard to argue bait availability doesn't have some impact on geographical movements of fish stocks. If we didn't have the bunker in our area we've had of late do you think we'd have the amount of bass we have during the migration. Not a chance. Bunker move off shore, predators follow. Maybe the same can be said with fluke and sand eels. Remember years past seeing baby whiting, baby ling, baby weakfish, small porgies in fluke's stomachs. All those fisheries have either disappeared or declined over the years. You can't deny there's climate change occurring, what impact it's having on stock movement is anyone's guess. It's easy to call everything climate change related as a catch all reason if all other possibilities are discounted.



Well stated as always..

I won't get into the "climate change" debate, we all have our own opinions.. In the case of fluke and you can throw sea bass in there as well, they are overfished in the southern part of thier range... Probably could say that for the NY Bight as well, only because of the sheer number of people after them, although the numbers are still very good from what most of us have seen. That might be why the numbers are declining in the southern parts of the range of both species. I have been reading about the heavy commercial pressure down south, much worse than many of us realize.

One thing I am pretty sure of.. Both species have a pretty wide temperature tolerance. I personally doubt big populations will move north OR south over a degree or two.. They will concentrate where their optimum food sources are located for certain.. ANY fish in salt or fresh water will leave optimum temperature AND habitat, for prime feeding.. When the food moves, the fish that eat it move right along with it... As it pertains to this years Fluke, I still believe that come July/August the fishing will be good on the traditional rough bottom .. So many Ling still being caught in fairly shallow water every day.. I think the bottom is still colder than whats normal for late June... bob

[fish4fun]

If water temperature is to blame then how do you explain why Montauk is out producing the Sandy Hook/Raritan Bay area? Isn't the water colder there?

[Capt Sal]

If water temperature is to blame then how do you explain why Montauk is out producing the Sandy Hook/Raritan Bay area? Isn't the water colder there?

So true!The water temp. is i would look at first.Raritan Bay is good in June if there are grass shrimp around.No bait no fish.Why do they bite in Montauk when water temp. are 60 .Never made sense to me.I do not buy the global warming theory at all.Every year is different.Maybe the fluke will bite in July and continue until the close.

[dakota560]

Dakota, is that explanation anywhere close to one of the problems or solutions? I'm still trying to get my head around the system that is being used and the historical data that is mentioned.

Interesting analogy, I agree with the point you're making and here's why from my understanding of the process. There's a tremendous amount of data and assumptions built into these models. I don't question the need, scientific effort or peer review for that matter in fishery management. What I challenge, and believe management should as well, are material unexplained changes in historical relationships not being discussed or addressed and the data and assumptions driving these models changing materially based on a different but still questionable means of collection resulting in radically different findings. The later I believe is the basis of your above comment.

Example. In the latest stock assessment (66th SAW) issued February of this year, based on changed reference points, spawning stock biomass “SSB” for the years 2002 through 2012 are shown exceeding what is referred to as “targeted biomass reference point proxy”. More important, in the prior assessment (57th SAW) released in 2013 and for the same period, those years reflect SSB being less than the target level in each of those years. The relevance of that is it’s my understanding if the target level is not attained, that triggers provisions of Magnuson-Stevens Act “MSA” resulting in catch levels being cut. So to your point, if both recreational and commercial have already been penalized so to speak in past years based on the data used in those years, why are only recreational anglers being penalized a second time by 40% if that’s already been factored into prior year catch limits visa vie reduced possession limits and increased size restrictions. For that matter, why aren’t those penalties reversed resulting in more liberal limits which is what the commercial sector received. Don’t fully understand how historical data can be changed which caused adverse regulatory impacts for those years involved but the impacts are not only not changed they’re doubled up on in 2019. That’s the credit owed in the bank account I believe you’re referring to and if so I agree.

In the 57th SAW, 2002 SSB was estimated around 49,000 metric tons. In the 66th SAW just released, the number for that year was changed to approximately 65,000 metric tons, 30% higher. A change of that magnitude within two consecutive stock assessments should be reason for concern regarding the accuracy / integrity of the data being used in models since it ultimately dictates access to the resource.

One last observation involving the process. There’s a statement in the 57th SAW which reads as follows “Commercial landings have accounted for 54% of total catch since 1982. With recreational landings accounting for 34%, commercial discards 8% and recreational discards about 5%”. That equates to commercial discards estimates being 15% of commercial landings.

There’s also a graph that shows a comparison of commercial discard rates on observed trawls versus unobserved trawls meaning numbers submitted on fishing vessel trip reports “FVTR” which is the honor system method used by commercial operators to report catch information. Completely unsubstantiated, they can report anything. The disparity is glaring. I’ll give you five years between 2000 and 2011, first number is discard percentage on observed trawls, second number is percentage on unobserved for those years. 2001 (98% vs 40%), 2006 (85% vs 40%), 2007 (144% vs 56%), 2008 (98% vs 38%) and 2009 (59% vs 22%). Average those five years for discard rates on observed trawls and it’s just shy of 100% and 2-3 times higher than figures reported on vessel trip reports yet a substantially lower commercial discard percentage is used in the models. Maybe that’s the answer to the mystery surrounding where all the 2-yr and younger age class fishing are mysteriously disappearing to. Recreational catch limits are penalized 40% based on a new approach to collecting data through MRIP which is completely speculative as far as quality of responses are concerned but a major disparity in commercial discard rates used in models versus what is physically observed is completely ignored. Seems once again recreational has one set of standards and commercial has a completely different more liberal set.

Billfish hope that addresses your question.

[Capt. JJ]

The never-ending topic....heres my 3 cents:

I have 2 observations, neither of which is scientific in nature, but both are based on just, years on the never ending pursuit of fluke.

1. Many years ago, when I mated on an infamous charter boat out of the Point, I had amazing opportunities to work deck for some of the best Captains in the biz. This topic invariably came up whenever we had slow days chasing Flatties, and every single Captain I asked about it all told me, basically, the same thing: from all of their connections with draggers, and divers, and daily trips themselves, the Summer Fluke action depended entirely on the prior Winter, and whether or not the Draggers "found" the main stocks on their Wintering grounds. Their belief was some years the commercial guys could really zero in on the biomass, and they could basically wipe out a large portion of the stock before it ever made its way inshore to us. When that happened, the Summer was ALWAYS slower. (In their humble opinion). Nothing scientific about that, but these guys are well known here on the board, and without naming names, if I did mention them you would all see my point about this being legit. They also told me that the very best places to target these fish, REGARDLESS of the season, was on wrecks.

2. Those same folks told me, and SHOWED me, that the very best time to fish for the same stock, was when the fluke were once again assembling in mass to move offshore to their Winter grounds (early Fall/late Fall.) Personally, Ive never had a bad Fall fishing for fluke, even if I had to play catch and release just for the hell of it. Never. Had. A. Bad. Fall. (My personal best fluke was caught the day after Thanksgiving, on a mid-depth wreck, out of BI, when every pass resulted in non stop action for VERY large, quality, fish.)

So....in summary, I guess I feel that the perception of Summer action is predicated by the commercial activities of the prior Winter, and the fact that the best fishing is sadly.....out of our concept of "Summer", and we aren't allowed to fish for them during the peak of the action.

Oh and.....fish dem wrecks!!!!

Cheers!

[dakota560]

So true!The water temp. is i would look at first.Raritan Bay is good in June if there are grass shrimp around.No bait no fish.Why do they bite in Montauk when water temp. are 60 .Never made sense to me.I do not buy the global warming theory at all.Every year is different.Maybe the fluke will bite in July and continue until the close.

Always been told, right or wrong, fluke flood there first for two reasons. Montauk is ~120 miles east of us so first stop on their inshore migration and they follow the squid spawn every year. Makes sense no different than why bass and everything else concentrate their in the fall on their migration south, forage during a long migration.

[dakota560]

1. Many years ago, when I mated on an infamous charter boat out of the Point, I had amazing opportunities to work deck for some of the best Captains in the biz. This topic invariably came up whenever we had slow days chasing Flatties, and every single Captain I asked about it all told me, basically, the same thing: from all of their connections with draggers, and divers, and daily trips themselves, the Summer Fluke action depended entirely on the prior Winter, and whether or not the Draggers "found" the main stocks on their Wintering grounds. Their belief was some years the commercial guys could really zero in on the biomass, and they could basically wipe out a large portion of the stock before it ever made its way inshore to us. When that happened, the Summer was ALWAYS slower. (In their humble opinion). Nothing scientific about that, but these guys are well known here on the board, and without naming names, if I did mention them you would all see my point about this being legit. They also told me that the very best places to target these fish, REGARDLESS of the season, was on wrecks.



This is one reason why fishery management not closing the season to commercial harvest during the fall spawn makes no sense. It's entirely about commercial lobbying power, the health of the fishery is subordinate. If the health of the fishery wasn't in question and recruitment strength of the biomass wasn't down for almost 25 years I'd have a different opinion. But they are and not addressing it is just another reason the fishery is in the condition it's in and we have a three fish limit, higher size restrictions and shortened seasons. Recreational anglers lose days to weather, they can never be made up. Commercial concerns lose days to weather, they still maintain the same quota and have six two month intervals to fill them. 40% increase to commercials in '19 is just another disproportionate allocation of a public resource and should give a good indication of where the management of the fishery is focused.

[Gerry Zagorski]

Not going to give my opinions on climate change here either...

I will however give you one opinion you can take to the bank... If all you do is complain here on the Interweb, nothing will change... People need to get involved and support the groups and organizations that fight for recreational fishermen's rights and better science, 2 of which you'll see in my signature...

[dakota560]

Not going to give my opinions on climate change here either...

I will however give you one opinion you can take to the bank... If all you do is complain here on the Interweb, nothing will change... People need to get involved and support the groups and organizations that fight for recreational fishermen's rights and better science, 2 of which you'll see in my signature...

Exactly why mom likes you better, don't see two in Joe's signature..........as a matter of fact he doesn't even have a signature!

[Skolmann]

Plenty of fluke in Manasquan Inlet. Between myself and another we combined for 28 in 2+ hours (and saw others caught). Yes they were all shorts but many in the 16-17.5” class. And if your like me, whose fishing philosophy over the past few years is just to have the rod bend (not just with fluke but all species). If I catch a few keepers its just a bonus, then you’ll have a nice few extra hours/day.

[dales529]

Not going to give my opinions on climate change here either...

I will however give you one opinion you can take to the bank... If all you do is complain here on the Interweb, nothing will change... People need to get involved and support the groups and organizations that fight for recreational fishermen's rights and better science, 2 of which you'll see in my signature...

Some tid bits as to the work being done on your behalf. RFA Nick Cicero at the table in Wash around the 1:27 mark but listen to all of it if you can
https://youtu.be/XPs5cR2vrg4

FYI: RFA Fluke trip Sat June 29 on Capt Ron Fisherman Atlantic Highlands NJ (see sticky post at top of this message board) Still have room and your whopping $10.00 donation believe it not helps get things done to prep for hearings in Washington as you see in the link above. Plus you get to go fishing. Fluke will show for Capt Ron

[stevelikes2fish]

I know they are up in Nantucket. Twin 9's on hugh baits.

[bulletbob]

If water temperature is to blame then how do you explain why Montauk is out producing the Sandy Hook/Raritan Bay area? Isn't the water colder there?


Good question.. Probably the same reason the porgies are hitting in late April/early May out east, and we don't see them until july... Thats a warm water fish .... Can't say why fish do the things they do.... bob

[Dupes]

Nice fish, Hammer4reel!

[Payoff5a]

They're out there! Maybe things are about to shift...23, 20, 19 all in 13-18ft of water...goodluck fellas

[Capt Joe]

Check J2 Facebook page:)

[Rocky]

Head east

Are you talking East or North East?

The doormats they are catching in the NE are making me jealous and that is hard to do.

[Oceanroamer]

North Carolina netters that can't get what they need in their waters because they netted them all or migration change are now off NJ coast.

[1captainron]

For Christ sake, your not going to catch them on the internet, get out and search.....Don't wait for the reports, like most due. Go make your own reports, why the hell own a boat if you sit back and wait.


Now read my post from today, Sunday.:)

[courbeco]

According to best avail science, the main body of fluke are shifting north due to climate change, along with BSB and everything else. I'm sure that's a controversial statement to many here...but it shouldn't be. It certainly fits what we're seeing.

But perhaps some southern species will take its place. Personally, I'm ready for some red drum in RB.

I guess the numbers of fluke (Partyboat reports/Facebook pages) caught this weekend shutdown the BS "Climate Change" theory...….:D

[bulletbob]

I guess the numbers of fluke (Partyboat reports/Facebook pages) caught this weekend shutdown the BS "Climate Change" theory...….:D

Often times guys don't think clearly... Guys that were catching fluke were catching them on shallow sunlit flats a few weeks ago when the season started.. In the ocean and deep channels in the bay it was simply too cold for a decent bite.. Some years June is a crap month for fluke, always been that way.. Too many guys panic if they aren't limiting out where they always limit out.. Sometimes the fish simply have other plans... bob

[courbeco]

Often times guys don't think clearly... Guys that were catching fluke were catching them on shallow sunlit flats a few weeks ago when the season started.. In the ocean and deep channels in the bay it was simply too cold for a decent bite.. Some years June is a crap month for fluke, always been that way.. Too many guys panic if they aren't limiting out where they always limit out.. Sometimes the fish simply have other plans... bob

I agree wholeheartedly Bob:).

[SaltLife1980]

Fish are around. Just have to know where to look.

[reason162]

I guess the numbers of fluke (Partyboat reports/Facebook pages) caught this weekend shutdown the BS "Climate Change" theory...….:D

Holy shit breaking news, some keepers were caught last week of June.

You do realize that the season could've opened a full month later and not one party/charter boat would've been affected.

[AndyS]

https://www.njfishing.com/forums/showthread.php?t=108166